July 22, 2025 Market Report

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Produce

Produce markets saw modest shifts, with avocados falling to a new YTD low ($45/carton) and iceberg and romas continuing upward. Potato pricing remained on a linear climb.

Outlook: The category is mostly stable, but supply-side disruptions (especially for avocados) remain a risk in August. Operators should review procurement contracts and forward volume projections for key categories before fall transitions begin.

Grain

Soybeans rallied nearly 3% w/w on strong June crush data and biofuel optimism, despite weak early-week reports on crop progress and exports. Other grain markets remained relatively quiet.

Outlook: Expect continued price sensitivity in soybeans as markets respond to energy policy developments and speculative buying. Teams should prepare for volatility and assess exposure tied to soy-derived ingredients.

Dairy

Spot pricing for butter, block, and barrel cheese declined slightly. Regional milk shortages due to high temps are pushing some processors to the spot market, although overall demand remains steady.

Outlook: Expect short-term softness with potential for regional volatility. As summer heat impacts milk yield, visibility into regional spot market activity becomes critical for pricing stability and production planning.

Beef

Live cattle futures rose 2% w/w, but boxed beef values trended lower post-holiday. Ribeyes held up slightly, while loins and end cuts like rounds and chucks declined across most segments. Trim prices were mixed, with 50% lean dropping $0.13 and 90% lean edging up.

Outlook: Packers are likely to reduce harvest levels to manage cost pressures, which could lead to temporary tightening in supply. While cutout values are softening, higher live prices may sustain elevated procurement costs in the short term.

Pork

Despite falling hog futures, the pork cutout gained 2% w/w. Hams and bellies drove gains, while butts and ribs declined. Export sales for butts slowed significantly, and trim values continued to climb.

Outlook: Look for near-term market volatility as domestic and export dynamics remain fluid. End-of-year holiday planning will lift hams, while the rest of the complex may see weaker pricing. Active monitoring of international policy developments is advised.

Seafood

Cod and tilapia both showed significant declines, with cod dropping 10.7% m/m. This follows inflated pricing in early 2025 and a softening demand trend despite lower import volumes.

Outlook: Price relief should continue over the next 1–2 months, particularly for cod. This presents a strategic opportunity for substitution and contract negotiation in underutilized frozen protein categories.

Poultry

Harvest levels remained flat year-over-year, but wholesale chicken pricing continued its seasonal decline. Breast meat dropped another $0.06 to $1.89/lb, now down 28% m/m, while wings increased for the seventh consecutive week to $1.54/lb. Thigh meat softened as well, though egg prices rose 4% week-over-week.

Outlook: Expect continued softness in white meat pricing through late summer. Tariff impacts could dampen export volumes, but domestic demand should keep prices within a manageable range. Monitoring promotion cycles will be key for timing forward buys.