December 9, 2025 Market Report

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Produce

Tomatoes corrected sharply from last week’s spike, with supply conditions improving ahead of winter demand. Lettuce remains firm due to lingering harvest challenges, though broader seasonal patterns continue to point downward. Potatoes remain steady and well below last year’s levels, supporting margin stability for high-volume concepts. Operators focusing on produce volatility will recognize this period as a window of relative predictability heading into early Q1.

Outlook: Expect tomatoes and lettuce to stay somewhat choppy through January, but the overall bias points lower as supply concerns ease. Potatoes should remain stable through the winter with only minor seasonal bumps.

Grain

Soybean oil pushed higher again despite weaker soybean markets, driven by biofuel policy speculation and shifting feedstock usage trends. With SBO feeling slightly overbought in the short term, operators using InsideTrack’s forecasting tools should expect near-term firmness and potential volatility tied to upcoming policy timelines. Fry-heavy concepts may want to revisit coverage strategies as we enter 2026.

Outlook: Expect some volatility as biofuel policy updates unfold. SBO may feel overbought short-term, but operators shouldn’t expect dramatic relief until policy direction becomes clearer post-January.

Dairy

Cheese continued to ease, offering welcome relief for pizza, QSR, and fast casual concepts tracking ingredient-level impacts. Butter moved modestly higher as holiday demand peaks, while fluid milk remained steady. Production remains consistent, inventory management is balanced, and export activity is slow — keeping dairy markets manageable for operators who rely on real-time data to support menu pricing and purchasing decisions.

Outlook: Cheese should remain favorable through December, while butter likely holds firm before easing after holiday demand fades. Export activity remains quiet and shouldn’t pressure prices near-term.

Beef

Beef markets were mixed, with notable softening in premium cuts such as ribeyes, striploins, and shortloins — an unusual opportunity for operators planning holiday features or evaluating contracted positions. End cuts like chucks and rounds held steady, helping keep grind programs predictable across multi-unit operations. Retail distributors are transitioning from turkey clearance into holiday beef features, which is helping realign demand in real time. InsideTrack users will see these shifts reflected early in their dashboards as cutout values adjust through December.

Outlook: As retailers clear freezer space from Thanksgiving turkeys and shift to December beef features, expect selective strength in holiday-driven cuts. Most other items should remain steady to slightly lower heading into late December.

Pork

Pork markets leaned softer overall as bellies, ribs, and butts moved lower, while loins and tenderloins held firm. Export demand supported boneless pork butts, signaling continued global pull even as domestic movement slows. Pork remains a cost-effective protein category for operators monitoring contract utilization and SKU-level performance. InsideTrack users may see favorable price verification trends as spot markets hold flat to slightly down.

Outlook: With lean hog prices aligning closely with the futures market and no big demand growth expected, the pork cutout is expected to trend flat to slightly lower into early January — good news for operators looking for value proteins.

Seafood

Pollock saw a notable rebound after months of consistent declines that pushed prices to six-year lows earlier this year. Although prices likely climbed through early fall, historical behavior points toward softening into Q1 — a trend InsideTrack users will be able to anticipate early through price and volume monitoring. This creates a timely opportunity for operators to evaluate seafood LTOs or renegotiate contracted positions.

Outlook: Pollock should trend lower in early 2026, making it an opportunity for operators planning LTOs, fish sandwiches, or value-driven seafood offerings.

Poultry

Poultry markets held steady this week with minimal shifts across breasts, tenders, wings, and thighs, creating a predictable pricing environment for operators managing tight food cost targets. Wings remain one of the most cost-effective proteins compared to last year’s levels, and dark meat continues to offer strong value for high-volume applications. Turkey and egg markets remain elevated year-over-year due to ongoing HPAI concerns, but overall production remains robust enough to keep volatility contained. For operators monitoring forecast accuracy, poultry remains one of the more stable categories at the moment.

Outlook: Expect poultry prices to stay generally stable through the holidays. Increased production and ongoing HPAI concerns may tug the market in opposite directions, but neither looks strong enough to cause a major swing. Short-term stability, slight seasonal lift.