August 4, 2025 Market Report

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Produce

Potato prices held flat but may be nearing the top of the pre-harvest rally. Iceberg lettuce dropped nearly 37%, aligning with projections for a short-term price floor. Avocados and tomatoes tracked with expectations.

Outlook: Produce markets are stabilizing. No major supply constraints are forecasted in the short term. Monitor closely for late Q3 volatility as seasonal transitions approach, and leverage spend data to spot anomalies.

Grain

Grain markets declined again. Soybean oil fell despite stronger biofuel demand, largely due to broader soybean market weakness. Tallow and corn oil demand were up, but canola and yellow grease underperformed.

Outlook: While soybean oil demand is improving, overall volatility remains high. Continue to monitor futures and feedstock trends. Use forecasting tools to prepare for Q4 menu cost adjustments if volatility persists.

Dairy

CME block and barrel cheese prices inched up, with tighter spot milk availability in hot regions. Butter prices remain steady, supported by strong export activity and slightly reduced cream volumes in some areas.

Outlook: Short-term pricing will likely stay stable with moderate upward pressure from weather-related milk constraints. Use historical data to track regional volatility and confirm compliance on dairy-based contracts.

Beef

Beef cutouts continued to slide, down 2% week-over-week. Rib meat remains the strongest performing primal, while loin and end cuts weakened. Ground beef and trimmings also declined, with 50% trim dropping significantly.

Outlook: Most beef cuts have likely peaked for the season. Operators should anticipate minor price increases in ribs and end cuts but continued pressure on middle meats and grinds. Use this period to re-optimize center-of-plate pricing and margin strategies.

Pork

Pork markets trended lower last week, with cutouts down 5%. Loins, ribs, and bellies lost ground. Ham and tenderloins were the only subprimals to post modest gains. Trims were mostly flat.

Outlook: Pork values will likely remain mixed to lower. With lean hog prices adjusting to market conditions, the near-term presents a solid opportunity for contract benchmarking or spot market advantages—especially in loin categories.

Seafood

Fresh Atlantic salmon prices have declined for the third straight month, now sitting 4.3% below the five-year average. The correction from record highs earlier this year appears to be leveling off.

Outlook: Salmon prices should continue to trend lower through November, but the steepest declines are behind us. Ideal time to evaluate supplier programs, price accuracy, and volume planning strategies across locations.

Poultry

Chicken breast prices increased for the first time in two months, signaling a potential shift in trend. Wings continued their upward climb and are now 25% higher month-over-month. Thigh meat was mixed, while retail ads for chicken increased by 11% last week. Turkey pricing was split—boneless climbed, whole birds declined.

Outlook: Expect white meat prices to remain stable to slightly lower through late summer. New tariff considerations may impact export flow, but overall retail demand should help maintain balance. Watch for promotional activity to influence pricing in early fall.