January 13, 2026 Market Report

Alerts & What’s Trending

You’re Probably Overpaying And Don’t Even Know It

Category Management Isn’t a Buzzword, It’s a Survival Skill

Food Procurement Isn’t a Task, It’s a Strategy

 

Produce

Iceberg lettuce weakened sharply—24‑count cartons down 14.3% w/w and seven consecutive weekly declines, targeting a floor near $10/carton and expected to trade roughly $10–$20 through the near term. Large roma tomatoes are sliding lower after a December bounce, seeking a similar ~$10/carton level. Avocados remain under pressure after an extended downturn but typically begin to firm around February, which could mark the start of recovery. Expect the market spotlight to move from lettuce/tomatoes toward avocado dynamics over the next month.

Outlook: Lower lettuce and tomato costs in the immediate term; monitor avocado supply in late January/February for early signs of a turnaround.

Grain

Markets were subdued ahead of the USDA WASDE and Quarterly Grain Stocks reports, with corn the focal point—traders expect USDA to reexamine the 2025 U.S. yield and corn is testing technical resistance. Strong export pace and consensus expectations for lower 2026 acreage mean even a modest downward tweak to 2025 yield estimates could trigger a notable corn rally. Soybeans and wheat could also move on the reports, though soybean positioning differs from corn.

Outlook: The USDA reports are the near‑term catalyst; corn carries the highest upside risk if yields or stocks are reduced.

Dairy

CME blocks eased to $1.36/lb (-$0.03) while barrels held at $1.40/lb; spot butter declined to $1.30/lb (-$0.08). Cheese production is steady and milk output remains strong, leaving ample spot volumes as buyers entered January with lighter orders. Foodservice demand is steady to softer, while export interest continues to provide support in pockets. Overall price softness reflects seasonal demand normalization and abundant milk supply.

Outlook: Short‑term stability with downside bias from ample milk and seasonally light demand; export activity will be the key price underpin.

Beef

CME Feb cattle jumped to $235.27/cwt (+1.6%); most contracts rose 1–2% and the choice cutout firmed to $356.79/cwt (+2%), select $352.06/cwt. Premium rib cuts slipped (bone‑in export ribs down to $8.76/lb; boneless heavy ribeye $9.81/lb), while end cuts strengthened—chuck rolls $6.34/lb (+$0.65), shoulder clods $3.96/lb, inside rounds $4.19/lb. Ground beef 81% and trims moved higher (81% $3.66/lb; 50% trim $1.38/lb), reflecting demand for value grind material. The market is being supported by a tightening cattle supply and a shift of demand into chucks/rounds.

Outlook: Near‑term beef should stay range‑bound with support from tighter supplies; expect demand-driven softness in February but limited downside given supply constraints.

Pork

The pork cutout fell ~4% to $90.79/cwt with widespread weakness across primals: loin primal $84.02/cwt (-4%), boneless loins $1.29/lb (-$0.09), loin/baby back ribs $2.59/lb (-$0.30). Pork butt primal dropped 6% to $112.51/cwt (B/I butt $1.30/lb), though 118 loads of boneless butts moved into export channels. Bellies, ribs and hams were softer; trim values were firmer (42% $0.49/lb; 72% $1.02/lb). Overall the board shows mixed cash/futures with holiday demand normalization driving much of the downside.

Outlook: Seasonal post‑holiday demand easing and adequate supplies should keep pork range‑bound to modestly lower into month‑end; look for promotion opportunities on loins and bellies.

Seafood

Late USDA import data for October showed frozen Alaskan pollock pricing plunged—down 12.1% m/m and 30.1% y/y—the largest monthly move among core non‑shrimp items. Pollock, which hit a seven‑year low mid‑year and briefly rebounded, is again flirting with multi‑year lows and remains under heavy downward pressure. Given current demand/supply dynamics, a meaningful recovery is unlikely before Q2 2026.

Outlook: Pollock prices should remain defensive into spring 2026; consider increased usage or promotional plans while supply is competitively priced.

Poultry

USDA reported a holiday-week young chicken harvest of 127.2 million head, down 2.8% y/y, while the National Composite WOGs ticked up $0.02 to $1.19/lb. Boneless/skinless breasts rose $0.02 to $1.17/lb (breasts +1% m/m, -19% y/y); tenderloins were up $0.01 to $1.40/lb (flat m/m, -17% y/y). Wings edged to $0.98/lb (up 1% m/m, -48% y/y); drumsticks and some thigh items posted only small moves. Turkey boneless breasts remain dramatically higher y/y (+238%), whole B/I turkeys +30% y/y, and the USDA large eggshell index plunged (down 28% w/w, 58% m/m, ~83% y/y) as flocks recover from late‑2024 HPAI.

Outlook: Expect relatively stable wholesale poultry prices through January as demand holds and supply gradually recovers; disease risks remain the primary upside risk.