July 15, 2025 Market Report

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Produce

Iceberg lettuce pricing nearly tripled since mid-June, with extreme volatility expected to continue into fall. Potato prices jumped ~40% in pre-harvest rally mode, especially on 60–70 count Idaho product.

Outlook: Watch for major swings through September. Consider pre-committing where possible or identifying short-term alternatives to protect against margin erosion.

Grain

Corn futures fell sharply despite record export volumes, as projections for large U.S. and Brazilian harvests continue to drive bearish sentiment. Even strong shipments haven’t been enough to stop the downtrend.

Outlook: Grain markets are poised to remain soft. This is a good time to evaluate contract positions and lock in pricing ahead of potential Q4 volatility.

Dairy

Butter and cheese prices stayed relatively stable, though summer heat is putting pressure on milk supply in some regions. Cheesemakers are turning to spot markets to keep production moving, especially in the Central U.S.

Outlook: Stability is expected in the short term, but regional production challenges could create localized pricing pressure. Continue tracking cream availability and contract performance.

Beef

Choice and select cutouts were both lower last week, with declines in ribs and striploins offset by modest increases in tenderloins and shortloins. Ground beef fell to $3.77/lb, while 50% trim hit a record high at $2.68/lb. Movement was mixed across end cuts and middle meats.

Outlook: Cutout values are expected to weaken as packers moderate harvest levels. Take advantage of falling beef prices to rebalance menus and maintain margin integrity.

Pork

Pork prices rebounded 3% from the prior week’s dip, led by gains in bellies, hams, and tenderloins. Butts and ribs declined, and pork butt export volumes dropped off. Trim values remain firm, with 72% trim climbing $0.12 to $1.34/lb.

Outlook: Pricing is expected to trend lower next month due to export volatility and tariff concerns. Monitor the market for timing opportunities, especially in trim and belly cuts.

Seafood

Seafood saw steep declines across the board, with frozen tilapia leading the drop at –12% month-over-month. Prices fell faster than expected due to weaker-than-usual import activity earlier in the year.

Outlook: Prices are expected to stabilize through late summer. Consider leveraging lower-cost seafood items for limited-time offers or to diversify protein options.

Poultry

Boneless skinless breasts dropped sharply to $1.95/lb, down 30% month-over-month, though still 15% higher than last year. Wings climbed to $1.47/lb, but remain 44% below 2023 and 24% under the five-year average. Boneless thigh meat declined to $2.21/lb but continues to trend above historical benchmarks. Turkey breasts surged 12% and whole birds rose 6%, while eggs held steady.

Outlook: Expect a typical seasonal dip in chicken prices, potentially accelerated by higher harvest volumes and tariff impacts. White meat demand remains strong thanks to its cost-efficiency.