July 29, 2025 Market Report

Commodity forecasting highlights from CommodityONE

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produce commodity update from insidetrack week of april 8 2025

Produce

Tomato and lettuce pricing remain volatile. Roma tomato pricing plateaued near $15/carton, while iceberg lettuce dropped 14.8% w/w. Tariff termination on Mexican tomatoes could strain Q4 supply. Avocados are softening but may rebound soon.

Outlook: Roma tomato and lettuce prices are expected to stabilize in the short term but may trend higher in Q4 due to the end of U.S.-Mexico trade agreements and seasonal crop transitions. Watch for a short-lived avocado price spike in August and steady upward movement in potatoes until harvest.

grain commodity update from insidetrack week of march 25 2025

Grain

Corn fell 2.1% despite hot weather due to strong crop condition ratings—highest since 2017. Export sales are robust but not yet influencing futures. Soybean oil rose slightly, bucking the broader grain trend.

Outlook: Grain prices are under pressure for now. Despite hot weather, strong crop ratings are keeping prices low. Expect continued softness unless crop conditions deteriorate. Keep an eye on corn and soybean oil markets, which could shift quickly based on late-summer USDA reports.

dairy commodity update from insidetrack

Dairy

CME cheese blocks and barrels ticked up slightly, both at $1.65–$1.66/lb. Spot butter fell $0.11 to $2.42/lb. Despite softer butter pricing, it’s still up $0.30/lb over the five-year average. Export demand for both categories remains strong.

Outlook: Dairy pricing should remain relatively stable, supported by strong domestic and export demand. Cheese prices are holding firm, and butter may see short-term softness before likely strengthening closer to Q4. Operators should expect mild seasonal increases heading into the holiday season.

beef commodity update from insidetrack week of march 11 2025

Beef

The AUG cattle contract rose 1%, but the beef cutout showed softness: Choice down 1%, Select down 2%. Loins continued to fall (e.g., striploins down $1.78/lb), while rib meat showed resilience. Ground beef dropped $0.24/lb to $3.55/lb, and 50% trim fell slightly.

Outlook: Beef prices have likely peaked for the year. Loins and ground beef are trending lower, while rib and end cuts may see mild strength in the short term. As overall demand softens, anticipate a gradual downward adjustment across most cuts heading into late summer.

pork commodity update from insidetrack

Pork

The pork cutout rose 1% on stronger bellies and hams, while most primals declined. Loin primal down 3%, tenderloins to $1.90/lb, and ribs dropped 5%. Belly primal climbed 2% to $192.97/cwt.

Outlook: Pork markets will likely stay mixed. Most cuts are trending downward, but hams are expected to rise in preparation for holiday demand. Bellies may remain volatile. Tariff policies and export fluctuations—particularly with China—could introduce short-term pricing swings, so expect an unpredictable Q3.

seafood commodity update from insidetrack

Seafood

Yellowfin tuna dropped 8.2% m/m in May after a 26.7% decline in April—now at a 16-year seasonal low. Imports have been stable but are expected to taper, possibly lifting prices into Q4.

Outlook: Yellowfin tuna prices are poised to rebound after a historic two-month drop. With import volumes expected to slow, a moderate price recovery is likely through fall. The upward trend may persist beyond the typical August peak due to the depth of recent declines.

poultry commodity update from insidetrack

Poultry

USDA harvest is up 3.6% YoY, driving downward price pressure across white meat categories. Boneless breasts dropped another $0.04 to $1.86/lb (now down 22% m/m), while wings rose again to $1.62/lb (+28% m/m). Tenderloins held steady, and thigh meat continues to slide. Turkey prices are spiking, with boneless breasts up nearly 5%.

Outlook: Poultry prices are expected to remain soft through August due to seasonal trends and export uncertainty caused by new tariffs. White meat demand should stay steady thanks to its relative affordability, but prices may continue to ease until fall promotions return. Wings and turkey could face moderate upward pressure heading into Q4.

 

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etgryhtjuy

Expert insights
curated weekly

ghytju

Powered by
CommodityONE

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