March 10, 2026 Market Report

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Produce

Produce markets showed mixed movement last week. Lettuce prices continued easing from February highs, while Roma tomatoes surged more than 76% week over week to $37 per carton due to blight in Mexico and freeze damage in parts of the Eastern U.S., creating an unusually tight supply environment.

Outlook: Tomato prices may remain volatile until new supply enters the market. For operators with tomato-heavy menus, tracking produce price swings closely will be important for managing food cost exposure in the coming weeks.

Grain

Grain markets posted another strong week, led by soybean oil alongside wheat, corn, and other row crops. Strength has been supported by rising crude oil prices and geopolitical tensions affecting fertilizer markets and biofuel demand.

Outlook: If energy markets and geopolitical factors continue driving investment into grains, the sector could see additional upside. That movement may eventually influence feed costs, which would have downstream implications for poultry, pork, and beef pricing later in the year.

Dairy

Dairy trading was active last week, particularly in butter, which led the weekly averages higher with a nearly 13% gain to just over $2.06. Cheese prices edged up roughly 2%, while nonfat dry milk also posted modest gains. Export demand continues to provide support for butter pricing.

Outlook: Butter prices could remain supported if export demand stays strong, though softer domestic consumption may limit further spikes. Cheese supply availability may help keep cheese price movement more moderate in the near term.

Beef

Beef markets strengthened last week as Choice and Select boxed beef cutouts rose about 2–3%. Gains were concentrated in rib, loin, flank, and plate primals, consistent with seasonal demand patterns. Packers remained cautious in their purchasing activity as they continue working through tight processing margins.

Outlook: Beef pricing may remain firm near term as seasonal demand builds. However, improving drought conditions in key cattle regions could support herd rebuilding longer term, which would be a key supply signal to watch in forward pricing and procurement planning.

Pork

Pork production remains elevated, with output running more than 5% above year-ago levels even as weekly slaughter dipped slightly. Despite the supply increase, the pork cutout moved about 1% higher last week, led by a 6% jump in belly prices. Meanwhile, St. Louis ribs declined and continue to trade at a wide discount compared to babyback ribs.

Outlook: Seasonal demand heading into spring grilling could tighten pork markets and lift prices. Procurement teams may want to watch the rib complex closely, as the current pricing gap between rib cuts could present short-term buying opportunities.

Seafood

Tilapia prices showed signs of stabilizing after a sharp correction during 2025, though strong import volumes continue to keep supply abundant. Imports have recovered to their highest levels since the post-COVID rebound.

Outlook: High import availability could limit sustained price increases for tilapia. From a procurement perspective, that stable supply environment may continue to make tilapia a predictable and cost-effective seafood option.

Poultry

Chicken production continues running ahead of last year, with weekly slaughter reaching 174.9 million head, up both week over week and 2.5% year over year. Pricing was mixed across the complex: breasts, thighs, leg quarters, and whole birds posted modest gains while wings dropped nearly 9%, hitting their lowest point in seven weeks. Strong production gains—roughly 3–4% above last year so far—have helped limit broader price increases.

Outlook: With chicken still maintaining a clear price advantage compared to beef, procurement teams may see operators shifting more promotions toward poultry. If second-quarter production growth slows closer to USDA’s forecast, breast prices could see upward pressure later in the spring.