Commodity forecasting highlights from CommodityONE
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Produce
Avocado prices spiked 7.6% to their highest level since June 2022, with little relief expected until summer. Iceberg lettuce dropped 18% w/w, erasing January gains, while yellow onions unexpectedly fell but should stabilize soon. Roma tomatoes remain steady, with potential price increases after April.
Grain
Corn prices declined as ethanol stocks surged to near-record levels and U.S. tariff threats on Mexican imports raised export concerns. The USDA projected 2025 corn planting at 94 million acres, a sharp increase from 90.6 million last year, which could pressure prices further.
Dairy
The dairy market softened, with CME blocks down $0.03 to $1.87/lb and butter falling $0.08 to $2.34/lb. Cheese demand from retail and foodservice remained steady, but buyers are purchasing fewer butter loads than seasonally expected.
Beef
Beef prices were stable, with the choice cutout at $311.83/cwt and select at $302.18/cwt. The rib complex showed mixed movement, while shortloins gained 2% to $7.37/lb. With spring grilling season approaching, strong demand is expected to support higher prices despite short-term trade uncertainties.
Pork
The pork cutout climbed to $100.96/cwt despite weaker hog futures, driven by a 19% surge in belly prices to $179.08/cwt. Loin/baby back ribs jumped $0.48 to $2.72/lb, while ham prices dropped 7% to $82.20/cwt. Tariffs set to take effect in March add uncertainty, but seasonal demand for pork cuts should keep prices firm.
Seafood
Frozen snow crab prices dropped 3.3% m/m in December, easing from prior spikes, but remain 20% higher y/y. While supply constraints from Canada pose risks for another price surge, seasonal trends suggest further declines through mid-year before potential support in April.
Poultry
Chicken harvests dipped 1.3% w/w but remained 1.6% higher y/y, with boneless/skinless breasts rising $0.09 to $1.75/lb and tenderloins holding steady. The USDA’s large eggshell index climbed 3% w/w, and the federal government announced plans to purchase eggs internationally to mitigate supply challenges.
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