Commodity forecasting highlights from CommodityONE
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Produce
Overall produce pricing stayed stable, with Roma tomatoes dipping 22% w/w but remaining within their seasonal band. Avocados continue trending lower, now just 29% above last year’s level, and iceberg lettuce remained flat.
Outlook: Produce markets are showing minimal volatility. This presents an opportunity to standardize pricing inputs across locations and optimize forecasting models.
Grain
Grain markets softened despite a weaker-than-expected corn crop rating, as traders shifted focus to weather patterns and shrugged off daily tariff headlines. Strong export momentum continues, but no premium has emerged yet.
Outlook: Grains are likely to remain range-bound unless weather disruptions materialize. Use pricing data tools to model potential risk scenarios and lock in stable rates when available.
Dairy
Butter jumped $0.13 to $2.49/lb last week, while cheese remained flat—blocks at $1.95/lb and barrels at $1.87/lb. Retail promotions remain strong, and export demand is strengthening across dairy categories.
Outlook: Expect upward pricing pressure in butter and nonfat dry milk. Operators should review contract compliance and leverage InsideTrack’s automation to flag unusual cost increases.
Beef
Choice and select cutouts both rose 1%, with the choice cutout closing at $366.09/cwt. Key cuts like striploins and sirloins posted gains, while chucks and rounds were mixed. Ground beef and trim markets also moved higher—81% lean hit $3.62/lb, while 50% trim climbed to $1.32/lb.
Outlook: Ongoing harvest constraints will continue to support beef pricing. Operators should leverage InsideTrack to compare location-level usage and catch pricing inconsistencies early.
Pork
Pork cutout advanced 4% to $104.62/cwt, led by strong movement in bellies, hams, and trims. 72% trim was up $0.14/lb to $1.19/lb, while derind bellies climbed to $1.83/lb. Export interest rebounded sharply, supporting the uptick in key subprimals.
Outlook: With increased export pressure and strong domestic demand, operators should track cost changes by cut and take advantage of rebate or contract verification tools to preserve margin.
Seafood
Frozen cod prices surged to a 22-month high at $4.60/lb, following sharp March increases. Limited Q1 import volumes contributed to the price spike, and normalization may take longer than expected.
Outlook: Expect cod to remain elevated short term. Operators should evaluate alternative species or portion strategies and use InsideTrack insights to monitor product-level fluctuations in real time.
Poultry
USDA young chicken harvests held steady week-over-week but are up 2.3% from last year. Boneless breasts inched down to $2.76/lb, while tenderloins increased to $2.44/lb. Boneless thigh meat climbed again to $2.45/lb, up 11% m/m and 38% y/y—an ongoing trend driven by foodservice demand.
Outlook: Operators should expect continued firmness in white and dark meat pricing as summer demand collides with limited harvest growth. Monitoring SKU-level costs weekly is key for managing category performance.
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Expert insights
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