June 17, 2025 Market Report

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Produce

Avocados flattened for the first time since April, but pricing remains on a downward path. Roma tomatoes slowed their decline and should rebound soon. Lettuce stayed flat, but crop disease could drive short-term spikes.

Outlook: Produce volatility remains segmented. Monitor items with weather or virus concerns closely—real-time data helps proactively adjust sourcing and mitigate surprise costs.

Grain

The EPA’s RVO update boosted soybean oil prices late in the week, reversing early losses. Increased biomass diesel targets are driving a bullish sentiment for SBO and related markets.

Outlook: Expect long-term price pressure in soy and biofuel-linked ingredients. Strategic sourcing and contract alignment will be essential to managing this volatility.

Dairy

Cheese and butter markets softened or held steady. Blocks and barrels slipped slightly; butter was flat at $2.55/lb. Cheese inventories are growing but still below last year.

Outlook: Stable production and demand keep dairy markets predictable for now. Use price trends and usage insights to forecast accurately and ensure supplier contract compliance.

Beef

Beef prices pushed higher across primals, with both choice and select cutouts climbing. Ribeyes, rounds, and trim all saw gains, while striploins began softening after reaching peak forecast levels.

Outlook: Continued cutout inflation is expected through July 4th. Price tracking is critical now—peak volatility offers an opportunity to adjust purchasing plans and optimize contract usage.

Pork

Lean hog futures surged, and primal markets followed. Bellies rose 9%, hams 8%, and pork butts gained 6% w/w. Export sales slowed but should rebound, supporting bullish momentum.

Outlook: Expect prices to keep climbing into the holiday, with a possible plateau mid-summer. Use item-level data to watch margins and shift volume accordingly.

Seafood

Yellowfin tuna pricing dropped sharply—down 27% m/m to $3.85/lb. This correction deviates from expected seasonal trends, likely triggering a rebound.

Outlook: Yellowfin has likely bottomed out. Procurement teams should monitor closely for reversal signals and act quickly to secure value ahead of rising costs.

Poultry

White meat markets were mixed—boneless skinless breasts dropped $0.09/lb to $2.69, while tenderloins rose to $2.53/lb. Wings edged up $0.03 but remain historically low. Egg pricing held flat, down 20% m/m.

Outlook: Expect seasonal softening in overall chicken markets, but stable demand and tight harvests should keep white meat relatively firm. Tracking weekly shifts helps verify pricing accuracy and adjust procurement strategy.