April 21, 2026 Market Report

Alerts & What’s Trending

Something Isn’t Adding Up in Your Purchasing

Because Without Clean Data, You’re Guessing

And Guessing Is Expensive

 

Produce

Produce markets were relatively quiet, but pricing remains elevated in key areas. Roma tomatoes continue to hover near $40/carton, limiting demand at that level. Iceberg lettuce increased 23% week over week off its typical $10 floor, while onion markets pushed to new year-to-date highs.

Outlook: Tomato pricing is highly dependent on supply recovery from Mexico and the Eastern U.S., with timing still uncertain. Lettuce is expected to remain rangebound between $10–$20/carton through Q3, while onion strength may persist in the short term but lacks uniform support across all varieties.

Grain

Wheat markets rallied sharply, driven by worsening drought conditions across key growing regions. The U.S. winter wheat good-to-excellent rating fell to 34%, while severe drought increased from 30% to 36% and extreme drought from 8% to 11%.

Outlook: Weather remains the critical driver. With no meaningful rainfall in the forecast, Kansas City wheat markets may continue to trend higher. This introduces potential cost pressure across grain-linked categories, particularly feed-intensive proteins.

Dairy

CME spot activity included 32 total trades, with cheese blocks up slightly (<1¢), butter down nearly 5¢, and whey and nonfat dry milk both moving higher. Nonfat dry milk has now surged 71% year-to-date, significantly outpacing other dairy components.

Outlook: Nonfat dry milk is the primary variable to watch, as its rally may shift milk utilization away from cheese production, providing underlying price support. At the same time, declining European dairy prices could pressure U.S. export competitiveness, limiting upside.

Beef

Beef production increased just 0.2% week over week but remains down 8.6% year over year, with year-to-date cattle slaughter now 10.2% below 2025 levels. Cash cattle prices held at record highs, while boxed beef cutouts softened slightly across both Choice and Select.

Outlook: Supply constraints remain the dominant force. March placements fell 7.3% year over year, marking one of the lowest levels for the month since 1996, reinforcing limited pipeline replenishment. Expect continued tight supply and elevated pricing, with minimal near-term relief as packers maintain disciplined production levels.

Pork

Production rose 1.1% week over week and is now 6.3% above last year, bringing year-to-date output in line with 2025. The market was mixed, with bellies declining sharply while hams (up 13%+) and ribs strengthened. Pork trim also dropped despite firm beef trim markets.

Outlook: Bellies are trading near seasonal lows not seen since mid-winter, driven by elevated short-term production. Historically, this period presents a pricing floor, with the next directional move more likely upward into summer demand. The data supports a potential contracting window before volatility increases.

Seafood

Yellowfin tuna prices declined 10.7% month over month in February, following a 26% increase in January, reflecting typical seasonal volatility. Pricing is now sitting near a five-year seasonal low, diverging slightly from normal downward trends.

Outlook: The market appears to be stabilizing rather than continuing its typical spring decline. Expect relatively flat pricing in the near term, with the next meaningful upward movement unlikely before June.

Poultry

Chicken production pulled back 1.4% week over week but remains 1.1% above last year, with year-to-date output now up 2.9% vs. 2025. Markets were mixed, with breasts and wings easing while thighs and tenders held firm. Turkey breast showed early weakness, and egg markets continue to sit at historically favorable levels for buyers.

Outlook: The key forward indicator is broiler egg sets, currently tracking ~2% above last year, compared to USDA’s more conservative +0.5% Q3 production forecast. If that gap closes like it did in 2024 (when similar trends drove ~3% growth), chicken pricing should remain capped. Expect stability overall, with wings as the primary area where downside risk is limited.