April 28, 2026 Market Report

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Produce

Roma tomatoes remain elevated near $40, while iceberg lettuce is experiencing renewed price pressure due to supply gaps during the Yuma-to-Salinas transition. Onion volatility is being driven by white onions tied to new crop supply, though the spike is expected to be short-lived. Weather-related disruptions continue to create short-term supply imbalances across key produce categories.

Outlook: Lettuce pricing is likely to test or exceed recent highs before normalizing. Onion markets should stabilize in the near term as supply transitions complete.

Grains

Wheat continues to lead the complex as drought conditions intensify, with severe drought impacting 29% of acreage and extreme drought rising to 14%, more than doubling in recent weeks. While some rainfall is expected, it is unlikely to materially reverse current crop stress conditions. Soybean markets stabilized following prior volatility, but broader grain pricing remains elevated.

Outlook: Wheat prices are likely to remain supported in the near term due to worsening crop conditions. Longer-term pressure may ease as export demand weakens in the upcoming marketing year.

Dairy

Cheese blocks, barrels, and nonfat dry milk posted weekly gains, while butter and whey declined as milk production moves into seasonal peak levels. March milk production rose 2.3% year over year, supported by a growing herd that has expanded by approximately 270,000 head since early 2025. This structural increase in supply is helping offset demand-side pressures.

Outlook: Dairy markets should remain relatively range-bound, with herd expansion limiting upside volatility. Watch export trends, particularly for cheese, as early signs of softening demand emerge.

Beef

Weekly beef production rose 2.9% but remains constrained, with year-to-date output down 5.4% and cattle slaughter nearly 10% below last year. Cutout values trended higher, led by briskets and flanks, while lean trim markets remain structurally supported by reduced cow and bull slaughter, down 5.1% year over year. Tight supply fundamentals continue to outweigh short-term production gains.

Outlook: Elevated beef pricing is likely to persist, particularly in lean trim markets tied to ground beef. Supply constraints driven by herd rebuilding will continue to limit downside risk.

Pork

Pork production declined 0.5% week over week but remains 2.8% above last year, with year-to-date output slightly ahead of 2025 levels. The pork cutout moved higher, supported by gains in butts and ribs, while bellies fell to 10-week lows, reflecting softer demand in that segment. Notably, sow slaughter rates are at their lowest levels in over a decade for this time period, signaling herd expansion.

Outlook: Near-term pricing should remain relatively balanced with category-specific variability. Improved herd dynamics suggest stronger supply availability later in 2026 and into 2027.

Seafood

Tilapia pricing increased over 7% in February, continuing a pattern of significant month-to-month volatility following a 10% decline in January. The category remains highly cyclical, with prices typically rising into March or April before trending downward. Current pricing behavior reflects a corrective rebound from seasonal lows.

Outlook: Expect continued short-term volatility with a likely seasonal peak in spring. Pricing should trend lower into early summer as typical seasonal patterns reassert.

Poultry

Chicken production continues to accelerate, now running over 3% above last year with year-to-date output up 3.1%, putting sustained pressure on pricing across wings and boneless breasts. Egg markets remain historically low but carry upside risk due to incomplete flock recovery, while broiler chick hatch (+3% y/y) and a 1.2% larger broiler layer flock reinforce forward supply growth. These indicators point to continued supply-side strength heading into peak seasonal demand.

Outlook: Chicken pricing should remain stable to lower in the near term given production momentum. Watch eggs and wings for potential volatility as supply constraints and demand cycles tighten.