Commodity forecasting highlights from CommodityONE
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Poultry
Chicken prices edged higher last week, but breast meat, tenders and wings remain attractive buys—with tenders still 21% below year-ago levels. Whole-bird prices moved lower, while eggs and turkey breast held mostly steady. Despite a larger breeding flock, producers are placing fewer chicks into grow houses, keeping chicken output below last year’s pace.
Outlook: Reduced chick placements should support chicken prices through fall and into winter, potentially narrowing today’s buying opportunities.
Beef
Beef prices offered some relief as choice and select cutouts fell roughly 1% last week, led by briskets, loins and rounds. Trim was mixed, with fattier blends moving higher and leaner blends easing. Production remains below last year, but strong imports are helping soften the lean-trim market—a welcome development for ground beef buyers.
Outlook: Beef trim prices are expected to remain soft this fall, while lower domestic production continues to limit relief across the broader beef market.
Pork
Pork continues to deliver value. Higher weekly production pushed every major primal lower, with some markets running nearly 30% below year-ago levels. Soft domestic demand and underwhelming exports are keeping pressure on prices, even as the USDA lowered its fourth-quarter supply forecast. Bellies bear watching for a possible longer-term price bottom this fall.
Outlook: Attractive pork pricing should persist through fall, though bellies could begin to stabilize before the broader market strengthens.
Produce
Lettuce remains the biggest pressure point in produce. Iceberg prices have climbed 374% over eight consecutive weeks and are approaching $50 per carton, with the typical early-November peak still ahead. Roma tomatoes are also trending higher and could approach $30 per 25-pound carton by late November. Avocados offer a brighter spot for buyers, with prices moving lower again.
Outlook: Expect continued near-term pressure on lettuce and tomatoes, while avocado prices remain softer ahead of their usual first-half seasonal upswing.
Dairy
Dairy markets are moving in different directions. Cheese blocks, nonfat dry milk and whey rose last week, with whey reaching record highs as international prices strengthened. Meanwhile, adequate milk supplies are supporting ample cheese and butter production. Record August cheese exports helped move product, but heavy inventories and flat domestic consumption are keeping a lid on cheese’s upside.
Outlook: Ample supply and sluggish domestic demand should temper cheese price increases this fall, even as whey remains a source of upward pressure.
Grains
Grain prices fell across the board after the USDA’s October reports, with corn taking the hardest hit. A higher corn yield estimate added to an already heavier supply outlook. Although the USDA also raised demand projections, the stocks-to-use ratio climbed from 9.7% to 11.3%, leaving a larger supply cushion—and more downside risk if exports fail to meet expectations.
Outlook: Grain prices, particularly corn, are likely to remain under pressure unless stronger export demand helps absorb the larger projected supply.
Whitefish costs are climbing as tight imports squeeze U.S. availability. Frozen Alaskan pollock fillet prices jumped 14.2% in August, outpacing frozen cod’s 3.8% increase. Import volumes have remained well below normal for three consecutive months, and pollock’s tendency to peak in the fourth quarter adds another reason for buyers to watch costs closely.
Outlook: Tight supplies could push pollock prices higher through year-end, with meaningful relief potentially delayed until well into 2027.
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