Commodity forecasting highlights from CommodityONE
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Produce
Avocado prices fell another 9.5% w/w and should continue declining before stabilizing near $50/carton. Iceberg lettuce climbed 15% w/w due to cold weather impacts, though the price rally is unlikely to reach last year’s highs. Roma tomatoes remained stable, with no supply issues expected.
Grain
Corn markets surged on strong export sales and new tariffs on Brazilian ethanol imports, boosting demand for U.S. corn-based ethanol. While traders were disappointed by minimal WASDE report changes, the outlook remains positive as the market watches for upcoming planting data.
Dairy
Dairy markets were mixed, with CME blocks up 3% to $1.91/lb and barrels up 2% to $1.83/lb, signaling strengthening demand. Butter prices held steady at $2.40/lb as cream supply remained abundant. Retail promotions increased, while retail prices trended lower.
Beef
Beef prices softened, with the choice cutout down 2% to $317.40/cwt as February remains a slow sales period. Chuck rolls saw a steep 14% drop, while loin cuts held firm ahead of the spring grilling season. Ground beef 81% declined 5% to $3.21/lb, while lean trim rebounded slightly to $3.74/lb.
Pork
The pork market strengthened, with the cutout climbing 5% to $100.87/cwt, driven by higher belly and trim prices. The belly primal rose 8% to $170.67/cwt, and 72% trim jumped $0.30 to $1.02/lb. With a slightly lower harvest and processors restocking freezers, pork prices are expected to keep rising.
Seafood
Tilapia prices dropped 7.3% m/m, continuing a downward trend after an inflated 2024. Despite this, prices remain 11.7% higher y/y, and historical trends suggest a sharp seasonal rebound between March and April. Operators should prepare for a potential price spike in early spring.
Poultry
Chicken harvests rose 6% w/w, but prices were mixed across cuts. Boneless/skinless breasts jumped $0.08 to $1.59/lb, while tenderloins dipped slightly to $1.70/lb. Egg prices surged 15% w/w, and turkey breast prices dropped 7%, signaling shifting demand trends as February retail promotions ramp up.
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