July 1, 2025 Market Report

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Produce

Avocado pricing surprised, dropping 18 % w/w to a YTD low and falling below year-ago levels for the first time in 11 months. Iceberg lettuce jumped 35 %, yet remains seasonally average; Idaho russets have started their pre-harvest climb in classic fashion. Virus chatter in Western lettuce fields bears monitoring but has not tightened supply yet.

Outlook: Favorable avocado pricing should persist through August—an ideal window for systemwide LTOs. Lettuce likely holds steady until a September upswing; budget $1-2/carton upside on potatoes through late July before new crop pressure sets in.

Grain

Winter wheat erased its geopolitical premium, and soybean oil fell with crude despite bullish long-term biofuel policy changes. Markets are braced for acreage and stocks data that could swing prices sharply.

Outlook: Near-term volatility is high; consider cost-plus or basis contracts on flour and fryer oil until the USDA data digests. Longer-range trajectory for soy oil remains upward—evaluate hedge strategies or supplier caps to protect Q4 budgets.

Dairy

Butter firmed to $2.54/lb on strong export demand, despite a sharp falloff in U.S. retail promotions; cream remains notably tight in parts of the West and Central regions. Cheese blocks slipped to $1.61/lb amid cooling retail orders, although milk supplies are still adequate for production.

Outlook: Butter is poised to stay supported—lock Q3 allocations for bakery and sauce platforms. Cheese looks range-bound until school-year demand and tailgate season kick in; consider shorter-term contracts or index-based deals to capture potential late-summer firmness.

Beef

Live cattle futures slipped 1.5 %, yet the Choice boxed-beef cutout advanced to $395/cwt as trim values reached record highs (50 % trim $2.34/lb). Middle meats cooled modestly, but packers signal harvest slow-downs to manage cash cattle, keeping supply tight. End cuts delivered mixed pricing, offering limited relief for grind-heavy programs.

Outlook: The market is likely to crest in the next 7-10 days before its typical mid-July pause. Secure ground-beef and lean-trim coverage now; delay heavy rib/loin bookings until the peak confirms, then layer in coverage for August grilling demand.

Pork

The composite cutout gained another 1 % (up 14 % for June) as bellies (+4 %) and tenderloins strengthened, but trim values slipped and export interest in butts cooled. Futures and cash are starting to diverge—an early indication the rally is maturing.

Outlook: Expect modest price softening in July; tariff clarity when the 90-day negotiation pause ends could add volatility for Q3. Hedge bacon requirements through late summer, but keep loin and butt positions flexible to capture downward swings.

Seafood

Frozen cod filets climbed another 6 % m/m to a record $4.89/lb—up 27 % YOY—marking five consecutive monthly gains. April traditionally represents the annual ceiling as import volumes trough, suggesting upside exhaustion.

Outlook: Prices should ease gradually as shipments normalize into Q4. Maintain current inventories, postpone large replenishment buys until late Q3, and diversify whitefish usage (pollock, hake) to curb food-cost creep.

Poultry

Harvest volumes ran 3.6 % ahead of last year, keeping whole-bird pricing flat and pushing boneless/skinless breasts down to $2.39/lb (-14 % m/m) while wings edged up to $1.26/lb—still half of 2024’s level. Dark meat drifted lower and eggs re-firmed 1 % after a May correction, underscoring balanced but disciplined supply. Limited growth in slaughter capacity continues to curb any glut, and white meat retains a strong value narrative for both retail and QSR menus.

Outlook: Seasonal erosion should keep breasts and thighs on a gentle slide into August, but value-driven promotions will soak up excess. Large chains should leverage formula or fixed-price contracts through Q3 while holding a floating position on wings to capitalize on historically low costs.