March 3, 2026 Market Report

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Produce

Tomatoes led the produce sector higher, with 25 lb. large romas climbing nearly 15% week-over-week due to freeze-related supply disruptions. Iceberg lettuce declined more than 19% w/w after reaching elevated price levels near $50/carton, marking its first weekly pullback since early January.

Outlook: Tomato markets are unlikely to return to seasonal norms in the near term, particularly with uncertainty around both U.S. and Mexican supply. Lettuce may have reached short-term resistance, but ongoing Western harvest challenges could keep prices above typical seasonal averages. Produce volatility warrants close contract compliance review.

Grain

Corn and soybeans continued rallying, with soybean oil emerging as the strongest performer year-to-date. The move is largely driven by speculation surrounding 2026 biofuel blending mandates, which have not yet been finalized.

Outlook: Markets remain highly sensitive to upcoming EPA decisions expected later this month. If blending mandates are lower than current expectations, soybean oil and related grain markets could correct quickly. Elevated grain prices may influence feed costs and downstream protein pricing in the months ahead.

Dairy

Cheese markets moved modestly higher, with blocks at $1.53/lb and barrels at $1.56/lb, while butter edged slightly lower to $1.86/lb. Retail cheese demand remains strong, and production capacity is adequate. Year-to-date block pricing remains below both last year and the five-year average.

Outlook: Cheese markets appear stable with modest upside potential supported by retail and export demand. Butter is balanced, though heavy churn schedules may limit sharp increases. Dairy remains one of the more predictable categories relative to proteins.

Beef

Choice and select cutouts both climbed 3% last week, with choice reaching $377.89/cwt as packers slowed harvest to support pricing. Ribeyes rose to $11.35/lb, striploins to $10.11/lb, and ground beef 81% increased to $3.84/lb. Trim markets also moved higher, signaling broad-based firmness.

Outlook: Reduced slaughter rates are tightening availability and driving middle meats higher, with strong February shortloin sales expected to push loin pricing up further in March. Concepts featuring premium cuts should watch margin compression closely as elevated beef costs move through distributor pricing.

Pork

The pork cutout increased 2% to $97.38/cwt, supported by a 5% rise in bellies and higher trim values. Loins were mixed, with boneless loins slightly down to $1.38/lb, while ribs declined 4%. Ham prices softened 2% amid moderate retail demand.

Outlook: While retail demand remains steady but not aggressive, rebuilding freezer inventories and anticipated improvement in export sales could stabilize pricing. Pork continues to present relative value compared to beef, though belly strength may pressure bacon-heavy menu items.

Seafood

Frozen tilapia filets rebounded 11% month-over-month following reduced import volumes late in 2025. Q1 seasonality historically brings increased volatility, and recent movement reflects that trend.

Outlook: Tilapia pricing may trend sideways to slightly lower short term before a potential March or April spike, which historically marks the seasonal high. Any sustained increase would likely be capped near the $2/lb level before easing later in the year.

Poultry

Chicken harvest declined 3.5% week-over-week but remains 3.3% higher year-over-year, with pricing largely stable across white meat. Breasts held at $1.47/lb (up 16.5% m/m), tenderloins at $1.52/lb, and wings slipped slightly to $1.20/lb but remain 37% below last year. Dark meat strengthened, with boneless/skinless thighs up 7% m/m and 10% y/y. Egg pricing dropped sharply, down 26% w/w and 89% y/y.

Outlook: Expect stable to slightly firm conditions in chicken through early March, particularly in dark meat. Egg markets are currently under pressure due to ample supply, but ongoing avian influenza risk introduces potential volatility. Invoice-level monitoring will be important if regional supply tightens unexpectedly.