Commodity forecasting highlights from CommodityONE
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Alerts & What’s Trending
The Biggest Threat to Your Margins Isn’t Obvious
You Might Be Overpaying on Every Order
If You Can’t See It, You Can’t Control It
Produce
Iceberg lettuce is trending toward the $10–$15 carton range, offering cost relief, while tomato pricing remains volatile due to ongoing supply disruptions. Oranges are holding around $30 per carton, above typical seasonal levels.
Outlook: Expect continued variability and prioritize real-time price tracking to avoid overpaying in volatile categories.

Grain
Grain markets reacted to updated renewable fuel mandates, with stronger biofuel demand supporting soybean oil pricing. However, delayed import penalties to 2028 are creating uncertainty around long-term demand dynamics.
Outlook: Expect continued volatility and monitor downstream cost impacts across feed and ingredient pricing.

Dairy
Cheese blocks rose to $1.6305 and nonfat dry milk to $1.914, while butter softened slightly to $1.8155. Milk production is increasing seasonally, supporting cheese supply, though butter remains tighter amid mixed export demand and rising freight costs.
Outlook: Keep a close eye on dairy price fluctuations and validate pricing against market trends as seasonal shifts take hold.

Beef
Beef production is down 12.1% year over year, with slaughter volumes tracking nearly 10% below last year, keeping supply constrained. Even with slight softening in boxed beef, demand remains strong, with 2026 consumption projected to reach a 17-year high.
Outlook: Monitor price increases closely and ensure contract compliance as elevated market conditions persist.

Pork
Pork production is up 2.5% year over year, contributing to softer pricing, particularly in hams and bellies, with hams hitting two-year lows. Inventory is slightly higher (+0.4%), but a 1.5% decline in the breeding herd suggests potential tightening ahead.
Outlook: Track downward price movement opportunities while validating that savings are being passed through accurately.

Seafood
Cod prices surged 11.8% month over month due to lower import volumes, breaking typical seasonal patterns and tightening supply conditions. If imports remain low, pricing pressure could continue into spring.
Outlook: Watch for rapid price changes and validate supplier pricing as market conditions remain нестable.

Poultry
Chicken production dipped about 1% week over week but remains 3.1% above last year, with forward indicators pointing to at least 2% higher output through spring. While most markets firmed, wing prices dropped to their lowest level since June 2023, hovering near $1.00 per pound, creating a widening spread across cuts.
Outlook: Watch for pricing inconsistencies across cuts and validate invoice accuracy as supply-driven pricing pressure continues.
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