May 5, 2026 Market Report

Alerts & What’s Trending

You Can’t Fix What You Can’t See. And Most Operators Still Can’t See Enough

So What Happens When All That Data Actually Works Together?

And It Starts With One Simple Question: Are You Paying the Right Price?

 

Produce

Produce markets continue to push higher, with roma tomatoes exceeding $40, iceberg lettuce surpassing prior YTD highs, and 50 lb. yellow onions reaching their highest levels in two years. Demand destruction has not yet meaningfully slowed pricing momentum.

Outlook: Relief is expected mid-May as supply transitions improve, but near-term pricing risk remains elevated. Watch for regional supply shifts (East Coast and Mexico) as early indicators of trend reversal.

Grains

Grain markets moved modestly higher, with soybeans posting slight gains after extended sideways movement. The rally appears driven primarily by soybean oil strength, despite a growing disconnect between the two markets and limited new biofuel policy developments.

Outlook: Confidence in the current rally is low. Without new demand drivers or policy changes, price movement may remain headline-driven and prone to reversal.

Dairy

Butter prices declined and are now trading below cheese, a relationship not consistently seen since 2021. Market activity remains moderate, with 37 CME spot trades last week, including 21 in butter. Global dynamics are shifting, with EU cheese and skim milk powder prices rebounding, though SMP remains discounted versus U.S. nonfat dry milk.

Outlook: Butter may be forming a near-term floor, supported by export potential. However, strong milk production and weak domestic demand will likely cap upside, keeping the market rangebound.

Beef

Beef production rose 1% week-over-week and is now just 1.8% below last year, with heavier carcass weights (+3.4% y/y) offsetting a 5.2% decline in slaughter. Trim markets hit record weekly averages, while premium cuts like ribeyes are down 10.9% year-over-year, reinforcing trade-down behavior.

Outlook: The market remains structurally tight. Any short-term pullback in cattle or futures markets should be viewed as a buying opportunity, but herd rebuilding dynamics will continue to support elevated pricing longer term.

Pork

Pork production declined 0.9% week-over-week and 0.4% year-over-year, with hog slaughter down 1.2% y/y. Despite tighter supply, the USDA cutout dropped more than 1%, led by weakness in hams and bellies. Pork belly pricing declined 7% from March to April, marking one of the largest seasonal drops in recent years.

Outlook: Current weakness is seasonal, not structural. Historical trends show pork belly prices increasing ~38% from May through August, indicating strong upside risk as demand shifts into summer.

Seafood

Snow crab prices declined 5.1% month-over-month in February and are down more than 15% over the past three months, erasing much of the late 2025 rally. Pricing remains elevated relative to historical norms at $9.06/lb.

Outlook: Seasonal patterns suggest potential for short-term increases during peak import periods, but recent years have shown less consistency. Expect volatility rather than a sustained upward trend.

Poultry

Chicken supply continues to build, with production up 3.3% year-over-year and year-to-date volumes running 2.9% ahead of 2025, keeping pressure on most cuts. Wings remain at historically low levels, while boneless skinless thighs continue to price at a premium. Egg markets remain in a steep correction, falling from $8.50/dozen at peak to roughly $0.50, even as Q1 production increased 4.7% year-over-year.

Outlook: Chicken remains supply-driven with limited near-term pricing pressure outside of wings. Eggs are the bigger watch—despite the price collapse, incomplete flock recovery and demand normalization create asymmetric upside risk.