November 4, 2025 Market Report

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Produce

Iceberg lettuce surged another 52% week-over-week, surpassing $50 per carton and reaching its highest price since December 2022. Short supply in Western growing regions remains the key driver, compounded by crop transition issues. Roma tomatoes trended higher but at a slower rate.

Outlook: Lettuce prices could exceed $60 per carton before encountering resistance later this month. Price normalization is anticipated by early December once new growing regions ramp up, though volatility will persist in the near term. Operators should consider forward coverage to mitigate exposure to short-term spikes.

Grain

Grain markets saw a mostly positive week, led by soybeans following the U.S.–China trade agreement announced in South Korea. China committed to import 12 MMT of U.S. soybeans this year and 25 MMT annually for the next three years. Corn and wheat also firmed modestly, while soybean oil weakened as traders rebalanced exposure within the complex.

Outlook: Soybeans could see modest support from renewed Chinese demand, though the impact will likely be gradual given current global supply levels. Corn and wheat remain range-bound, with future direction tied to South American planting progress and export competitiveness.

Dairy

The dairy complex was mixed last week. CME spot butter slipped $0.02 to $1.58/lb, while cheese blocks and barrels each rose $0.05, closing near $1.83/lb. Milk supplies remain abundant, sustaining active churning and steady production schedules. Domestic and export cheese demand remain firm, while butter demand is regionally uneven but strengthening seasonally.

Outlook: Ample milk availability will keep price volatility muted heading into the holidays. Expect stable cheese markets through November with potential short-term butter strength as retail and foodservice orders accelerate ahead of Thanksgiving.

Beef

Cattle futures retreated sharply, with most contracts down 4–5% week-over-week. Choice ribeyes rose $0.79 to $14.80/lb and tenderloins climbed $1.87 to $20.82/lb, reflecting holiday-driven demand, while rounds and trims saw mixed movement. Ground beef 81% increased $0.17 to $3.62/lb, and 50% trim also strengthened to $1.73/lb. The recent uptick in imported beef volumes and broader market corrections contributed to lower cattle prices despite resilient cutout values.

Outlook: High-end primals should maintain seasonal strength into December, but softening in end meats and grinds could develop as consumer spending slows. Operators should monitor market spreads between premium and value cuts, which may expand through Q4.

Pork

Pork futures and cash hogs fell again as wholesale values weakened. The loin primal dropped 6% to $87.94/cwt, and butts declined 10%, while bellies gained 7% to $152.26/cwt on steady bacon demand. Export volume rose for a second week, but declining cutout values indicate waning domestic momentum. Trims and hams were mostly lower.

Outlook: With no clear demand catalysts on the horizon, lean hog and primal prices are expected to remain under pressure. Seasonal belly demand may provide short-term support, but overall weakness across the pork complex is likely through mid-November.

Seafood

Mahi-mahi prices remain historically high but stable, up 38% year-to-date. Despite lower import volumes since spring, market behavior has aligned with seasonal norms—peaking in April and holding firm through fall. Broader seafood sector volatility has had limited impact on mahi to date.

Outlook: Seasonal declines are expected toward year-end as new harvests and import volumes normalize. However, import delays could sustain elevated price levels into early 2026. Operators relying on mahi should continue monitoring monthly USDA updates to adjust menu planning accordingly.

Poultry

USDA harvest volumes totaled 172.6 million head last week, down slightly week-over-week but still 2% higher year-over-year, underscoring sustained oversupply. The National Composite WOG fell to $1.04/lb, with boneless/skinless breasts slipping $0.02 to $1.11/lb and thigh meat declining $0.13 to $1.36/lb. Wings and tenderloins held steady, while turkey prices remained flat but elevated, with boneless breasts still 265% higher year-to-date. Egg prices moved 5% higher week-over-week but remain 47% lower versus last year.

Outlook: Ample production and slower demand continue to drive poultry prices toward multi-year lows. If federal SNAP benefits are temporarily suspended, reduced retail purchasing power could further depress demand, potentially widening price gaps across value-added and fresh categories in December.