Commodity forecasting highlights from CommodityONE
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Poultry
Broiler slaughter is 3.9% below last year while six-week chick placements are up 0.7%, the largest gain since early September.
Outlook: History points to downside risk for chicken, though limited supply and record consumption suggest a flat market through December.
Beef
Beef production dropped 1.5% week over week and 5% year over year, with the Q3-to-Q4 seasonal gain possibly the biggest in over a decade.
Outlook: With cow and bull production near 30-year lows, lean trim downside looks limited.
Pork
Weekly pork production rose 2.5% and the USDA sees Q4 as the second-largest quarter on record, as per capita consumption sits at 11-year lows.
Outlook: October’s belly average was near a 13-year monthly low, historically a longer-term bottom, so risk skews upward.
Produce
Iceberg 24-count dropped nearly 20% week over week, ending an 11-week streak that lifted prices more than 550%, while avocados turned higher.
Outlook: Iceberg should return to roughly $20 into early 2027, and avocados settle near $30 if Mexican harvests resume soon.
Dairy
Only five loads traded on CME Friday as cheese and butter fell, while whey and nonfat dry milk have hit record highs this year.
Outlook: U.S. prices sit above export parity, so the near-term risk is to the downside.
Grains
Corn and soybeans slid through technical support, with December corn above $4.40 and January soybeans below $12 on strong yield reports.
Outlook: If USDA confirms yields, corn could reach $4 and January soybeans may only hold near $11.50.
August import data showed fresh Atlantic salmon up 1% month over month, only the third August increase in a decade, with year-over-year prices up 8%.
Outlook: Expect a much stronger December-April rally than last year’s, with prices trending higher from December.
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