October 14, 2025 Market Report

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Produce

Lettuce markets surged higher for the second consecutive week, with 24-count iceberg climbing 77.4% week-over-week—the strongest rally since 2023. Persistent disease pressure and seasonal transition from coastal to desert growing regions have tightened supply faster than expected. Early signs suggest a repeat of the traditional fall price rally, historically spanning late September through November.

Outlook: Iceberg prices are projected to rise for another 3–4 weeks, potentially peaking near $40 before moderating in late November.

Grain

Trading across the grains complex remained muted due to the lack of updated government data. Soybeans saw early-week strength tied to trade optimism surrounding U.S.–China negotiations but eased back as traders priced in limited near-term export upside. Seasonal peak shipping activity is now underway, tempering further gains even if a trade deal advances.

Outlook: Soybean futures could dip below $10 in the near term, with markets remaining range-bound until trade clarity improves.

Dairy

Dairy prices moved broadly lower last week as seasonal production patterns intensified. Butter fell sharply by $0.15 to $1.60/lb as processors prioritized retail packaging ahead of holiday demand. Cheese blocks slipped $0.02 to $1.76/lb, while barrels gained $0.02 to $1.74/lb. Milk output improved from summer lows, and cheese makers are ramping up production to fill holiday orders. Export demand for butter and cheese remains strong, helping offset weaker domestic foodservice activity.

Outlook: Markets should stabilize in the short term as milk availability improves and holiday manufacturing demand accelerates.

Beef

Cattle and beef markets found renewed support last week. Live cattle futures rose 2% to $235/cwt, and the choice cutout gained 1% to $365.22/cwt. Ribeye values strengthened, with boneless heavy ribeyes climbing $0.59 to $14.91/lb, while export ribs eased slightly. End cuts showed mixed movement, with inside rounds increasing $0.23 to $4.13/lb and chuck rolls down $0.06 to $4.46/lb. Ground beef 81% declined $0.31 to $3.20/lb, while 50% trim firmed to $1.47/lb. The market’s recent correction appears to be stabilizing, aligning with seasonal trends.

Outlook: Prices are expected to hold firm or edge higher as demand for premium holiday cuts strengthens through Q4.

Pork

The pork complex softened across most primals, with the pork cutout down 5% week-over-week to $102.64/cwt. Bellies and butts led the decline—derind bellies fell $0.20 to $1.61/lb, and boneless pork butts were off $0.06 to $1.52/lb. Loins dipped modestly to $1.33/lb, while tenderloins were steady at $1.96/lb. Hams bucked the trend, rising 2% on increased international demand. Exports continue to provide moderate market support even as domestic consumption weakens.

Outlook: Expect near-term softness across most pork categories, with export activity helping to prevent sharper declines.

Seafood

Atlantic salmon extended its downtrend, falling another 5.1% month-over-month to $4.95/lb—the lowest since December 2020. Import volumes have exceeded historical averages for five consecutive months, maintaining strong downward price pressure. Despite the recent slide, month-to-month declines are slowing, signaling potential market stabilization.

Outlook: Salmon prices may flatten in the coming weeks, with modest recovery anticipated heading into early 2026.

Poultry

Production levels remained elevated last week, with USDA young chicken harvests reaching 174.4 million head—slightly below the prior week but 4.4% higher year-over-year. This ongoing oversupply continued to weigh heavily on the market. Boneless/skinless breasts dropped another $0.07 to $1.19/lb, marking a 35% month-over-month and 30% year-over-year decline. Tenderloins also retreated $0.18 to $1.58/lb, while wings fell $0.12 to $1.17/lb, nearly 50% below 2024 levels. Turkey prices remain a major outlier, with boneless breasts up 263% YTD, while egg markets trended sharply lower, down 10% week-over-week. No new detections of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) were reported in U.S. commercial flocks.

Outlook: Continued heavy supply and softened demand signal short-term downside risk in chicken pricing, while turkey values remain firm through holiday demand cycles.