October 7, 2025 Market Report

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Produce

Iceberg lettuce rebounded 12% off its multi-week low, signaling potential early volatility in leafy greens. Roma tomatoes declined 13% but may be nearing a short-term bottom as prices approach historical support levels. Broader produce markets were steady, though seasonal weather could soon influence supply and cost dynamics.

Outlook: Expect gradual firming in select categories as the growing season transitions. Track key commodities like lettuce and tomatoes for early signals of supply shifts.

Grain

Soybeans gained late in the week amid renewed attention on U.S.–China trade prospects, though analysts caution the rally may be short-lived. Corn and wheat prices were relatively unchanged despite heightened news coverage and speculative interest. Feed costs remain steady and could provide some margin relief across proteins.

Outlook: Grains are expected to hold in a narrow range, with volatility tied to trade developments and export data.

Dairy

Dairy prices firmed as butter rose $0.11 to $1.75/lb and cheese blocks climbed $0.14 to $1.78/lb. Manufacturers are prioritizing holiday retail orders, tightening available bulk volumes. International demand remains a stabilizing factor for both butter and cheese markets. Fluid milk pricing eased slightly but remains within seasonal norms.

Outlook: Moderate upward momentum is likely through Q4 as producers focus on retail fulfillment and exports maintain pace.

Beef

Beef markets continued trending lower with both choice and select cutouts down roughly 2–3% week-over-week. Ribeyes and loins were mixed, but end cuts and trim moved lower alongside a softer live cattle market. Ground beef stayed mostly flat, supported by steady retail demand. Seasonal factors and holiday procurement cycles are beginning to influence trading patterns.

Outlook: Prices are expected to stabilize in late October, with tenderloins and ribs strengthening as holiday demand builds.

Pork

The pork cutout fell 3% to $107.35/cwt, led by a sharp 13% drop in the belly primal. Loins, tenderloins, and baby back ribs showed modest resilience amid consistent export activity. Trimmings weakened as overall production remained steady. The market continues to balance weaker domestic consumption with international buying interest.

Outlook: Expect near-term softness with potential firming later in Q4 as export demand offsets slower domestic movement.

Seafood

Snow crab import prices rose 5.6% month-over-month, marking a late-season uptick as quotas tighten and inventories shrink. Despite previous declines, strong international demand has kept the category supported. Broader seafood pricing remains mixed with uneven import trends.

Outlook: Snow crab pricing should remain steady to slightly lower through early 2026 as inventories normalize and demand moderates.

Poultry

Production remained elevated last week with USDA harvest numbers up 2.5% year-over-year, driving continued declines across the chicken market. Boneless/skinless breasts dropped $0.16 to $1.26/lb, tenderloins fell $0.21 to $1.75/lb, and wings slid $0.14 to $1.30/lb. Retail promotions have softened while higher output levels weigh heavily on wholesale values. Turkey prices were mixed—boneless breasts gained while whole birds retreated—and egg prices plunged nearly 30% week-over-week.

Outlook: Price pressure is likely to persist in the near term as harvest rates remain high. Operators should monitor supplier pricing closely, particularly as avian influenza cases emerge during migration season.