Commodity forecasting highlights from CommodityONE
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Poultry
Chicken production softened again last week, down about 0.5% week over week, and for the week ending August 22, output was 0.6% lower than the prior week and nearly 2% below year-ago levels. Chicken markets were broadly weaker, led by a nearly 5% drop in wing prices, while table eggs were flat and turkey breast fell to 17-month lows. On the supply side, updated USDA data showed the August broiler layer inventory was up 1.5% from last year, suggesting future production could rebound.
Outlook: Chicken prices may stay relatively contained near term as improving breeder inventories point to better supply ahead.
Beef
Beef production increased 3.7% from the prior week, but remained 3.1% below the same week last year, with year-to-date output now running 7.9% behind 2025. Cattle slaughter was down 4.4% year over year, boxed beef values softened, and most primals moved lower, especially flanks. While the August 1 cattle-on-feed inventory was 1.8% above last year, July placements were down a sharp 11%, reinforcing the view that overall cattle supplies remain tight.
Outlook: Tight cattle availability should continue to support beef pricing this fall, though some items such as trim may face additional downside.
Pork
Pork output edged up 0.2% week over week and was 0.5% above last year, with year-to-date production up 0.4%, driven mostly by heavier hog weights. The USDA pork cutout fell to its fourth-lowest weekly level in the last seven months, with hams, picnics, loins, and bellies all lower. Rib inventories remain notably tight, with July 31 holdings down 2.4% from last year and the second-smallest for the month in 12 years.
Outlook: Broader pork markets likely remain soft this fall, although ribs could hold firmer than other cuts in the near term before seasonal pressure builds.
Produce
Produce markets saw a bit more movement last week, but nothing unusual for late summer. 48-count Hass avocados fell 15% week over week as the impact of Mexico inspection disruptions faded, while potatoes appear to have ended their pre-harvest rally. 24-count iceberg lettuce and 25 lb. large roma tomatoes both moved higher, though that was likely more bargain buying than the start of a sustained rally.
Outlook: Expect mostly steady produce pricing in the near term, with lettuce and tomatoes not likely to see meaningful upward pressure again until at least mid-September.
Dairy
Spot dairy trading was light, with just 16 loads changing hands for the week. Most dairy markets moved higher except cheese blocks, while nonfat dry milk reached 11-week highs on stronger export and domestic demand. USDA’s July milk production report showed output up 2.2% year over year, driven by a 2.1% larger milk cow herd and a modest 0.1% increase in yield per cow.
Outlook: Dairy prices should stay fairly favorable near term, though rising feed costs could eventually pressure farm margins and tighten milk supplies later on.
Grains
Grains finished the week with strong momentum, led by wheat and corn, which both rose by more than 5%, with some grain moves exceeding 10% on the week. Wheat in particular surged as hopes faded for a quick resolution to ongoing Black Sea trade disruptions. U.S. wheat export demand has responded, with nearly 800,000 metric tons of export sales booked over the past two weeks for the current marketing year.
Outlook: Grain markets, especially wheat, may remain volatile and biased higher as long as Black Sea shipping constraints continue.
Seafood
Fresh yellowfin tuna was one of the largest movers in the latest seafood data, rising 5.3% month over month in June after declines in the prior two months. Import volumes ran above normal in April and May before correcting in June, and supply is expected to trend lower from now through November. That likely means prices have continued to edge up through late summer, even if the second half of the year is expected to be calmer than the first.
Outlook: Yellowfin tuna prices may continue to firm modestly in the near term, but overall seafood volatility should ease compared with earlier in the year.
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