September 23, 2025 Market Report

Alerts & What’s Trending

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Produce

Roma tomatoes surged another 31.7% w/w to $17.16/carton, extending a strong uptrend. Iceberg lettuce declined for the third straight week, nearing a YTD low above $10/carton.

Outlook: Tomato pricing is unlikely to sustain the current velocity but should remain elevated into November. Lettuce appears near a bottom, signaling a potential reversal. InsideTrack’s forecasting dashboards can help operators time forward buys and minimize produce volatility across units.

Grain

USDA boosted corn acreage by 1.4M acres, offsetting bullish yield concerns. Futures failed to break $4.30, limiting upside despite stronger exports.

Outlook: Corn pricing is expected to drift sideways to lower. Multi-unit operators should leverage InsideTrack’s grain cost modeling to forecast flour exposure and validate bakery contract performance.

Dairy

CME block cheese moved to $1.68/lb while barrels held flat. Butter fell to $1.81/lb despite increased production ahead of the holidays. Domestic cheese demand is stable but foodservice activity trails last year.

Outlook: Cheese pricing should hold steady into Q4, while butter may firm with seasonal demand. Operators should compare invoice-level dairy spend against InsideTrack’s benchmark data to validate price compliance.

Beef

Choice and select cutouts fell 4–5% w/w, with tenderloins at a YTD high of $20.27/lb while end cuts and trim weakened. Ground beef 81% slid $0.28 to $3.60/lb, with 50% and 90% trim also lower.

Outlook: Beef cutouts are projected to trend lower into fall, though premium cuts (tenderloins, ribs) may stabilize ahead of holiday demand. Operators should use InsideTrack reporting to identify margin exposure in grind-heavy menus versus premium cuts and adjust accordingly.

Pork

Hog futures and cash hogs both slipped 1%, and the pork cutout closed lower at $111.95/cwt. Bellies and hams drove weakness, while loins and ribs held firmer. Trim pricing was mixed across lean categories.

Outlook: Near-term pork cutouts are expected to be mixed-to-lower, influenced by global demand volatility and tariff risk. Procurement teams should leverage InsideTrack variance reporting to monitor ham and belly exposure across locations.

Seafood

Frozen pollock fell 10% m/m — the steepest decline of its six-month slide — and is approaching a seven-year low. Broader seafood pricing remains under pressure.

Outlook: Some seasonal firming is possible later this year, but downside risk persists. Operators should utilize InsideTrack’s spend visibility tools to evaluate seafood category exposure and renegotiate contracts at the current market lows.

Poultry

USDA young chicken harvest dropped 9.2% w/w but is still nearly 8% higher y/y. Breast meat corrected sharply (down 18% m/m) with tenders also lower, while wings continue their extended decline — now 30% below last year and 17% under the five-year average. Thigh meat was stable, though still elevated vs. historical levels. Turkey pricing remains volatile with boneless breasts up 205% y/y.

Outlook: InsideTrack models show continued downside risk in breast and tender pricing through September, while thigh meat could firm on promotional activity. Operators should benchmark current poultry contracts to ensure pricing reflects real-time market softness.