September 30, 2025 Market Report

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Produce

Produce markets were relatively steady, with no significant supply disruptions reported. Roma tomatoes reversed last week’s gains, and iceberg lettuce dropped just under 10%, signaling stabilization after recent declines. Pricing across most key produce items remains within expected seasonal ranges.

Outlook: Pricing should remain manageable through October, though gradual increases are likely into November as weather transitions. Buyers should continue to monitor West Coast yield trends for early signs of volatility.

Grain

Corn futures ended narrowly higher but remain locked in a downtrend. USDA export data showed 1.923 MMT of sales for 2025/26, setting a new seasonal record, yet technical resistance capped gains. Wheat found light support from improved export sales and firmer Russian pricing.

Outlook: Grain markets remain pressured by large supplies despite robust demand. Operators should anticipate modest downside risk ahead, with feed input savings likely carrying through to protein categories.

Dairy

Dairy markets were mixed as butter and fluid milk weakened, while cheese held mostly steady. CME blocks slipped $0.04 to $1.64/lb, with barrels flat at the same level. Butter prices continued to fall, now at $1.64/lb, but production has expanded in preparation for holiday demand.

Outlook: Strong milk supply and steady cheese demand are keeping markets balanced. Butter remains well supplied, suggesting limited upside in the short term — favorable conditions for seasonal purchasing.

Beef

Cattle markets showed mixed performance this week, with the choice cutout falling 4% to $371.97/cwt and select down 2%. Premium cuts such as ribeyes gained modestly, while chucks and rounds declined, signaling softer retail demand. 81% ground beef eased $0.12 to $3.48/lb, while 90% lean trim firmed to $4.35/lb.

Outlook: Operators should expect near-term weakness in end cuts and grinds, while high-end cuts will stabilize ahead of holiday buying. Monitoring contract performance on premium proteins will be key as market direction shifts in late Q4.

Pork

Pork cutout values eased 1% to $110.99/cwt, primarily from a 5% decline in the loin primal. Tenderloins fell to $1.75/lb, while boneless loins slipped to $1.33/lb. International sales provided support for pork butts, helping offset domestic demand weakness. Ribs and bellies held firm, maintaining pricing stability across key menu items.

Outlook: Near-term softness in loins may create strategic buying opportunities. Expect mixed trends as robust exports counterbalance slower domestic movement through early fall.

Seafood

After prolonged declines, yellowfin tuna prices rose 7.6% m/m — the fourth-largest movement across tracked species. Despite the rebound, yellowfin remains down 34% YTD. Pollock prices also continue trending lower, down nearly 29% YTD, reflecting sector-wide weakness.

Outlook: Expect mild corrective gains in yellowfin through Q4 as import volumes ease. Seasonal firming is likely around January, offering a window for contract review and forward planning.

Poultry

The poultry market continued to adjust as increased harvest volume applied downward pressure on pricing. Weekly young chicken harvest rose 8.2% w/w to 174.4 million head, driving notable declines in white meat. Boneless/skinless breasts fell $0.23 to $1.42/lb, and tenderloins dropped $0.19 to $1.96/lb — both showing double-digit month-over-month losses. Wings are now 38% below last year, while turkey markets remain elevated, with boneless breasts up 216% YTD.

Outlook: Expect ongoing weakness in breast and tenderloin pricing as supply outpaces demand. With seasonal promotions softening, procurement teams should capitalize on lower prices while maintaining flexibility for potential Q4 stabilization.