Commodity forecasting highlights from CommodityONE
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Poultry
Chicken production continues to strengthen, with output running about 2% higher than last year due to increased slaughter rates and heavier bird weights. Pricing was mixed across the category last week, with wings and leg quarters trending upward while breasts and tenderloins remained relatively stable. Although supplies remain favorable, declining producer margins could eventually slow production growth.
Outlook: Poultry pricing remains relatively stable today, but continued monitoring will be important as supply conditions evolve later this year.
Beef
Beef production posted a modest weekly increase but remains 5.8% below last year’s pace year to date as cattle inventories stay historically tight. While wholesale beef prices softened across several cuts, retail prices remain near record highs, signaling that supply constraints continue to drive elevated costs throughout the market.
Outlook: Beef is expected to remain one of the highest-cost protein categories, making price verification and spend visibility critical for managing food costs.
Pork
Pork production edged lower last week, although year-to-date output remains slightly ahead of last year because of heavier hog weights. Market pricing remains mixed, with bacon continuing to outperform while pepperoni and sausage costs stay elevated due to higher pork trim prices. Recent weakness in trim markets could help ease costs for processed pork products over time.
Outlook: Pork markets remain relatively balanced, but operators should continue tracking processed meat costs for signs of additional relief.
Produce
Produce pricing remained relatively stable despite ongoing attention surrounding the cyclospora outbreak linked to lettuce from Central Mexico. The outbreak has not materially affected lettuce pricing, while iceberg lettuce appears to be stabilizing after earlier volatility. Avocados moved modestly higher, and onion markets continue to follow expected seasonal patterns.
Outlook: Produce markets remain favorable overall, though regular price monitoring will help identify localized shifts as seasonal demand changes.
Dairy
Cheese prices continued climbing last week, with block cheese now nearly 16% higher than one month ago, while butter, dry whey, and nonfat dry milk all declined. Expanding milk production continues to support supply, helping reduce the likelihood of significant shortages despite recent strength in cheese pricing.
Outlook: Cheese costs may remain firm in the near term, making ongoing invoice and contract price validation especially valuable.
Grains
Grain markets strengthened as geopolitical uncertainty and higher crude oil prices fueled buying activity. Wheat experienced the largest gains following renewed concerns surrounding Black Sea export routes, increasing volatility across the market.
Outlook: Grain costs could remain unpredictable, reinforcing the importance of tracking commodity trends alongside supplier pricing.
Seafood
Shrimp prices continued to decline, reaching their lowest monthly average since September 2024 as import volumes increased and supply improved. Current pricing represents one of the strongest value opportunities across major protein categories, although seasonal demand is expected to push prices higher later this year.
Outlook: Operators may benefit from today’s favorable shrimp pricing, but should monitor market conditions as the industry moves toward the fourth quarter.
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