Commodity forecasting highlights from CommodityONE
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Poultry
Chicken fundamentals were mixed, but pricing stayed soft. Young chicken slaughter was up slightly week over week and 0.5% above last year, while production for the week ending August 1 was 0.3% below last year because bird weights were 0.8% lighter. Year to date, production is still running 2.5% above 2025, which lines up with USDA’s Q3 growth view. On the market side, nearly every chicken cut moved lower last week except wings, and boneless skinless breasts have historically weakened from August into December in 11 of the last 12 years.
Outlook: Expect poultry pricing to remain mostly soft near term, though margin pressure at producers could eventually slow supply growth and put a floor under the market later this year.
Beef
Beef remains the tightest animal protein story. Weekly output fell 0.5%, production was 2.7% below last year, and year-to-date output is now 5.6% lower, driven by an 8.1% decline in cattle slaughter. Boxed beef cutouts were higher again last week, while June feedlot placements were down 2.9% year over year and came in as the smallest June in 17 years, reinforcing that cattle supplies are still historically tight.
Outlook: Beef prices should stay supported because supply remains constrained, and the restart of Mexican cattle imports is unlikely to materially affect beef availability before Q2 2027.
Pork
Pork supply is steady, but the price complex is still soft. Weekly production rose 0.3% from the prior week but was 0.9% below last year, while year-to-date output remains 0.5% above 2025 thanks to heavier hog weights despite a 0.6% smaller slaughter. Cash hogs, nearby futures, and the USDA pork cutout all weakened last week, with the cutout pressured mainly by a 12% drop in ham prices, while bellies were the notable outlier at multi-month highs.
Outlook: Pork may see a seasonal bounce in August, but with most cuts still trading below year-ago levels, the broader tone looks neutral to slightly softer.
Produce
Produce was largely uneventful, which is good news for buyers. Avocados were flat week over week after three straight weeks of gains, suggesting that rally may be losing steam, while onions also appear to have topped out. Iceberg lettuce and roma tomatoes both slipped to new year-to-date lows, and iceberg’s six-week losing streak pushed the average price below $10 per carton for the first time since 2023.
Outlook: Expect produce markets to stay mostly flat and favorable through the next several weeks, with only limited upside risk in avocados.
Dairy
Dairy markets cooled after a stronger spot session earlier in the week, and both cheese and butter are still trading well below last year’s levels. Milk production is seasonally light but steady, domestic cheese demand is roughly keeping pace with output, and butter supplies are a bit tighter as sales improve. Seasonality is worth watching here: CME cheese blocks have averaged higher in August versus July in 9 of the last 11 years.
Outlook: Cheese has the better chance for near-term support as August milk flows seasonally tighten, while butter may be more mixed despite somewhat firmer fundamentals.
Grains
Grains stayed under pressure overall, though technical support helped stabilize parts of the complex. Soybean oil snapped a six-day losing streak after finding support at its 100-day moving average, but the bigger driver remains crude oil. Soybeans also steadied, though heavy rainfall expected in the eastern Corn Belt and the need for faster Chinese buying against a 25 MMT target could keep the market on edge.
Outlook: Grain markets still lean bearish unless weather turns less favorable or export demand, especially from China, accelerates meaningfully.
Seafood
Seafood pricing was mostly quiet, but yellowfin tuna and tilapia remain the key watchpoints. Fresh yellowfin tuna was the only major tracked item besides tilapia to move more than 5% in either direction in the May import data, while tilapia is still dealing with supply pressure after a 19% month-over-month jump in March. Import volumes have run well above normal for the last two months, which has kept a lid on prices even though volumes should begin to fade seasonally from here through November.
Outlook: Seafood pricing should recover modestly in the back half of the year, but abundant imports will likely keep any rebound gradual rather than sharp.
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