Commodity forecasting highlights from CommodityONE
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Poultry
Chicken output for the week ending August 15 was up 1.1% year over year, keeping year-to-date weekly production 2.4% ahead of 2025. While first-half growth ran hot at 4.2%, moderating chick placements, a declining layer flock, and a raised USDA Q3 supply estimate of 2.9% above year-ago levels point to slowing momentum ahead. Primal markets were mixed last week, with tenders, wings, whole birds, and leg quarters finishing lower, while boneless skinless breasts and thighs moved firmer.
Outlook: While near-term supplies remain ample and could pressure prices, moderating production growth and shifting seasonal demand leave the market vulnerable to upside risk heading into fall.
Beef
Weekly beef output rose 1.1% week over week but fell 4.5% year over year due to a nearly 6% drop in cattle slaughter. Although the August 1 cattle-on-feed inventory was up 1.8% year over year, that reflects longer feedlot stays rather than new supply coming online. July placements plummeted 11% year over year, reinforcing the structural tightness ahead. Retail beef prices set new July records, up 9.4% annually, with ground beef up 10.1%, pushing consumers toward chicken even as wholesale ground beef found firm support despite brief trade headline volatility.
Outlook: Structurally tight cattle supplies, sharply lower placements, and historically high retail prices ensure the beef complex remains well supported through the fall.
Pork
Pork production rose 1.1% week over week but slipped 0.6% below year-ago levels, leaving year-to-date output up a modest 0.4% as heavier hog weights offset a 0.7% drop in slaughter. The USDA pork cutout fell nearly 3% on the week, with bellies down 4.6% and now 15.4% below last year, while hams and picnics are trading more than 20% under year-ago levels. USDA lowered its 2026 domestic per capita pork consumption estimate to 49.5 pounds, though weak summer market action suggests the final number could dip even lower.
Outlook: Seasonal headwinds and severe year-over-year discounts across major primals point to additional price softness and downward pressure through the fall.
Produce
The 24-count iceberg lettuce market snapped a seven-week losing streak by climbing 11% week over week, recovering after an 82% cumulative drop that bottomed out earlier in the summer. Supplies across the broader produce category remain comfortable with no major immediate concerns, and iceberg prices are hovering near the historical $10 per carton floor.
Outlook: Expect iceberg prices to remain subdued in the near term before the traditional late-year rally window potentially opens toward the end of September.
Dairy
U.S. milk production in July rose 2.2% year over year on a 2.1% larger cow herd, with cooler weather aiding output while back-to-school fluid demand diverted milk away from manufacturing. CME cheese blocks and butter closed in the red, but nonfat dry milk rallied to nine-week highs. International support is mounting, highlighted by a 7.6% surge in skim milk powder at the latest Global Dairy Trade auction and a U.S. dollar falling to its lowest level versus the euro since May.
Outlook: Favorable export conditions, rising global powder prices, and a weaker dollar will keep nonfat dry milk supported even if cheese and butter remain rangebound near term.
Grains
All major grain commodities finished the week higher, led by row crops following Pro Farmer’s annual crop tour. Preliminary tour results showed yields underperforming USDA August Crop Production estimates in six of the seven states surveyed, with significant corn shortfalls in top-producing Iowa and Illinois and soybean lags in Illinois, Indiana, and Ohio.
Outlook: If Pro Farmer’s lower yield estimates hold up against USDA’s data, historically tight corn balance sheets and lagging soybean projections could drive meaningful long-term upside.
Seafood
Frozen tilapia fillet prices jumped 6.5% month over month in June, marking the eighth consecutive monthly swing greater than 6% in either direction, recovering slightly from an all-time low reached in May. The bounce was primarily driven by a counter-seasonal decline in import volumes, though overall volatility continues to normalize as the market moves into its quieter seasonal demand period.
Outlook: Tilapia’s recovery is likely short-lived as the market enters its seasonally quiet demand period, delaying a full and lasting pricing recovery until 2027.
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