Commodity forecasting highlights from CommodityONE
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Produce
Romas held near $14/carton after prior gains. Iceberg nudged up slightly, and avocados continued trending lower. Yellow onions may strengthen in June.
Outlook: Core produce categories should remain stable in the short term with minimal pricing disruption expected.
Grain
Wheat led a sector-wide rally, supported by drought concerns, global currency shifts, and 12-year-high export sales. Market speculation remains active.
Outlook: Grains are likely to stay volatile short term; procurement teams should watch for continued momentum into the June acreage report.
Dairy
Blocks climbed to $1.95/lb and barrels to $1.87/lb; butter increased to $2.36/lb. Retail demand is steady, and export interest is strengthening. Milk and cream supply remain strong.
Outlook: Expect steady-to-slightly higher prices in the near term, supported by production efficiency and global demand.
Beef
Choice cutout rose 3% to $360.97/cwt; tenderloins hit $14.30/lb and striploins reached $11.21/lb. Grinds and trim also moved higher, with 81% ground beef at $3.59/lb. Futures are up, reflecting market optimism.
Outlook: Reduced harvest levels are tightening supply, likely keeping beef prices elevated across premium and value cuts.
Pork
Cutout increased to $100.27/cwt, driven by ribs and loins. Baby backs hit $3.00/lb, but butts and bellies slipped slightly. Export sales declined 4 million lbs, trimming momentum.
Outlook: Domestic demand is propping up pork prices; expect a steady near-term market with some risk tied to trade softness.
Seafood
Pollock dropped another 7% m/m and is down 21% since November, now nearing $1.40/lb. This matches seasonal lows.
Outlook: Prices are expected to firm gradually through fall—operators may want to secure current levels ahead of Q3 increases.
Poultry
Chicken harvest increased 1.3% w/w and 2.8% y/y. Boneless breast ($2.77/lb), tenderloin ($2.39/lb), and thigh meat ($2.42/lb) all climbed, while wings declined to $1.13/lb. Retail ad activity jumped 10%, led by tenderloins.
Outlook: White meat pricing is expected to hold firm as harvest constraints and foodservice demand continue through summer.
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