Commodity forecasting highlights from CommodityONE
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Designed to support purchasing and forecasting teams in managing price risks, CommodityONE provides powerful tools like commodity forecasting and item-specific food cost modeling to help you plan smarter and maximize profitability. Learn how you can receive even more in-depth insights delivered daily from CommodityONE to elevate your strategy.
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Poultry
October boneless skinless thighs carried a record monthly premium of more than $0.50 per pound over breasts, even as young-bird slaughter fell 2.9% year over year. That spread makes item-level purchasing visibility more useful than a broad chicken-cost average. Explore InsideTrack commodity insights alongside your purchase history to identify which cuts are driving spending and where familiar assumptions about dark-meat value need another look.
Outlook: Breasts offer relative value in the source period, but constrained supply and changing demand could reshape the spread as breasts and tenders recover.
Beef
Domestic beef 90s reached a 17-month low while ribs strengthened for holiday buying. Those opposing moves can disappear inside a blended beef-spend report, particularly when locations buy different cuts or specifications. Explore InsideTrack beef commodity insights alongside item-level purchase trends to separate changes in product mix from changes in unit cost and identify where a supplier-pricing review deserves attention.
Outlook: Near-term trim softness may continue, while holiday rib demand and imported-supply risks could keep beef cost movements uneven.
Pork
Pork bellies dropped nearly 12% in the reporting week, and 42 and 72 trim fell more than 20%. Those are meaningful market signals, but they are not proof that every bacon or sausage invoice should decline by the same percentage. Explore InsideTrack commodity insights alongside purchase records to compare like-for-like specifications and identify pork items that warrant closer review against your pricing terms.
Outlook:Tighter winter supplies create rebound risk, making today’s low pork markets worth monitoring rather than assuming they will persist.
Produce
Large roma tomatoes rose more than 44% in two weeks, while 24-count iceberg lettuce was essentially flat week over week. A single produce inflation figure could miss that contrast and obscure which ingredients are changing restaurant food costs. Explore InsideTrack produce insights alongside purchasing data to examine pack sizes, quantities and item-level price changes before deciding whether a spending increase reflects market pressure or buying mix.
Outlook: Tomato prices could climb further, and the Mexican avocado harvest stoppage adds another potential source of produce purchasing volatility.
Dairy
September U.S. milk production rose 2.6% year over year, while cheese blocks, butter, nonfat dry milk and whey declined during the reporting week. Cheese barrels moved higher, showing that even dairy benchmarks can diverge. Explore InsideTrack dairy commodity insights alongside purchase-cost trends to understand which products and pricing terms explain your actual spending rather than assuming the whole dairy category moved together.
Outlook: Ample milk and cheese supplies favor near-term cheese weakness, though benchmark moves may not immediately appear in restaurant purchase prices.
Grains
Corn export sales trailed the prior year by nearly 34%, compared with USDA expectations for a 4% decline. That gap helps explain grain-market weakness, but futures movements alone cannot establish what a restaurant should pay for a finished product. Explore InsideTrack commodity insights alongside purchasing trends to put cost changes in context and avoid treating every grain-linked invoice as a direct reflection of corn.
Outlook: Weak exports could pull December corn toward $4, while improving export interest may provide comparatively better support for wheat.
Frozen cod fillet import prices rose 3.8% month over month in August, versus a 14% jump for pollock, ending seven months of closely aligned movements. Treating both species as one reporting category could conceal which purchases are driving seafood cost changes. Explore InsideTrack commodity insights alongside item-level data to compare species, specifications and volumes before attributing a higher seafood bill entirely to market inflation.
Outlook: Improving cod import availability may ease prices before a potential rebound in March of the following year.
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