Commodity forecasting highlights from CommodityONE
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Poultry
The poultry signal is mixed, not uniformly lower: breasts, tenders and wings declined, while thighs and leg quarters rose. Eggs also eased. Slower production alongside strong consumption makes cut-level tracking important; compare like-for-like purchases so product mix does not obscure the underlying price trend.
Outlook: Monitor whether slower output begins to outweigh current price weakness, particularly as strong chicken consumption continues.
Beef
Weekly beef output improved, boxed prices softened and trim continued lower, while ribs strengthened seasonally. Those opposing trends can disappear inside an aggregate beef-spend figure. Track rib and ground-beef inputs separately, and distinguish changes in purchase volume from actual movement in unit costs.
Outlook: Better supply should temper fall pricing, but rib strength and uncertainty around cattle imports may keep results uneven by item.
Pork
Pork’s cutout fell to a more-than-three-year low, with hams and ribs leading declines and bellies well below year-earlier levels. That provides a useful directional benchmark, not a guaranteed invoice reduction. Compare delivered unit prices on consistent specifications before concluding that purchasing costs have followed the market.
Outlook: Projected fourth-quarter supply growth and soft consumption point to continued market pressure, making the timing of invoice changes worth tracking.
Produce
Lettuce, tomatoes and potatoes moved higher, while Hass avocados fell again. A blended produce average could hide both inflation and savings opportunities. Separate these items in weekly reviews, keeping pack sizes and specifications consistent when comparing invoices, especially amid the sharp iceberg lettuce rally.
Outlook: Expect continued near-term lettuce and tomato pressure, potential post-harvest potato easing and a possible floor forming in avocado prices.
Dairy
Recent spot dairy gains contrast with the commentary’s expectation for lower distributor cheddar prices, based on earlier wholesale weakness. Cheese blocks reached a one-year high, while milk supplies improved seasonally. Keep wholesale indicators and delivered cheddar costs on separate timelines when assessing whether market changes are reaching purchases.
Outlook: Distributor cheddar should ease over the next several weeks, but current spot strength makes the size and duration of relief uncertain.
Grains
Grains weakened broadly, while corn hovered near $4.80 despite stronger export sales. That level is a market signal rather than a direct benchmark for finished-product invoices. Track futures direction separately from purchasing costs so changes in contracts, processing and product mix are not mistaken for commodity movement.
Outlook: Corn risks a move toward $4.40 if support breaks, although stronger export demand and tight global supplies could interrupt the decline.
Fresh yellowfin tuna’s sharp August increase follows an extended period of below-normal pricing. Because the underlying release is monthly, avoid reading it as a current-week delivered quote. Compare tuna purchases using consistent product specifications and reporting periods before drawing conclusions about the pace of cost recovery.
Outlook: The commentary anticipates modest yellowfin easing through year-end, followed by a January increase and longer-term upside risk.
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