October 21, 2025 Market Report

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Produce

Lettuce pricing continued to surge, up another 16% week-over-week, as western harvest regions grapple with ongoing yield challenges. Iceberg 24-count cartons are expected to peak around $40 by mid-November before seasonal relief emerges. Tomato prices continue to hover near the $10/carton level amid reduced volatility; however, recent storms along Mexico’s Baja Peninsula could impact near-term availability.

Outlook: Expect lettuce to remain elevated for several weeks before correcting lower late in Q4. Tomato prices are likely to stabilize near current levels but may rise modestly if weather disruptions persist.

Grain

The grains complex posted slight week-over-week gains. Soybeans, which appeared poised to break below $10/bu, found support following a robust September crush report in the NOPA data. Wheat futures also inched higher, while ongoing trade friction between the U.S. and China continues to limit export optimism.

Outlook: Soybeans are likely to remain rangebound between $10 and $10.30 until new trade developments occur. Longer-term, sustained trade pressure could trigger a retest of sub-$10 levels.

Dairy

The dairy complex was mixed, with CME butter down $0.03 to $1.63/lb and cheese blocks and barrels both higher at $1.77/lb. Butter production continues to favor retail over bulk output in preparation for holiday demand. Milk yields have improved with cooler weather, while cheese production remains steady as processors balance milk availability and spot prices. Retail sales are strong, though foodservice activity remains comparatively soft.

Outlook: Dairy prices are expected to remain steady overall. Butter markets may see short-term firmness tied to holiday demand, while consistent milk output should cap upside potential for cheese and milk prices through year-end.

Beef

Beef prices showed stabilization across multiple segments. The Choice cutout increased 1% to $366.11/cwt, while Select rose to $348.93/cwt. Premium items such as striploins gained $0.53 to $9.14/lb, marking the first move back above $9/lb since July. Top sirloins and chuck items also firmed slightly, supported by steady foodservice demand. Ground beef (81%) increased $0.25 to $3.45/lb, reflecting stronger retail pull-through.

Outlook: Seasonal demand for higher-end cuts is expected to lift overall boxed beef values through the end of Q4. Operators should monitor pricing on ribs and tenderloins as holiday-driven demand increases market tightness.

Pork

Lean hogs and pork cutouts weakened slightly, closing at $102.17/cwt. Loin and butt primals gained modestly, while ham and picnic primals declined. Boneless loins were higher at $1.36/lb, and baby back ribs rose to $2.64/lb. In contrast, tenderloins slipped to $1.78/lb and bone-in butts declined to $1.19/lb. The ham primal decreased 2% to $99.78/cwt, pressured by reduced export demand.

Outlook: With hog supplies ample and export activity slowing, the pork market is expected to trend lower short-term. Cutout values could remain rangebound until stronger demand materializes later in the quarter.

Seafood

Shrimp prices remain stable, outperforming broader seafood market trends. After recovering much of last year’s losses early in 2025, prices have held steady through the second half of the year. Historical seasonality suggests a modest upward trend may emerge in late Q4 before normalizing early next year.

Outlook: Expect limited price movement across the shrimp complex in the short term, with a potential seasonal uptick toward year-end followed by a typical early-year correction.

Poultry

USDA young chicken harvest reached 174 million head last week, down slightly week-over-week but 3.5% above the same week last year. National Composite WOGs declined another $0.02 to $1.04/lb as overall production continues to outpace demand. Boneless/skinless breasts dropped $0.05 to $1.14/lb, while wings fell $0.07 to $1.10/lb—both now more than 30% lower month-over-month. Thigh meat trended lower as well, with boneless/skinless thighs down $0.12 to $1.60/lb and bone-in thighs down $0.08 to $0.70/lb. Turkey prices, in contrast, remain significantly elevated year-to-date, with boneless breasts up 270% and whole birds up 60%.

Outlook: Chicken prices are projected to remain under pressure due to strong production and limited retail promotion activity. Turkey markets could see short-term volatility as HPAI detections in commercial flocks tighten available supply ahead of the holiday season.