Commodity forecasting highlights from CommodityONE
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Poultry
Chicken production fell 1.3% year over year in September, validating the tighter-supply signal in weekly estimates. Cut-level prices diverged: breasts and leg quarters declined, while thighs carried a record premium to boneless, skinless breasts.
Outlook: Track chicken spend by cut and monitor egg pricing separately, as winter chicken risk rises while egg supply indicators improve.
Beef
Beef output was 4.2% below a year earlier, and feedlot placements fell 12%. Rib prices rose while briskets and flanks declined, meaning a blended beef-cost view could obscure materially different purchasing trends.
Outlook: Monitor beef price variance at the item level, with tight cattle supplies and weak pasture conditions limiting confidence in broad relief.
Pork
The pork cutout declined nearly 13% over the month and stood 24% below a year earlier. Weekly trim declines of 14% for 42s and 9% for 72s highlight how sharply some inputs have moved.
Outlook: Compare relevant invoice trends with market direction to identify possible savings gaps, allowing for contract terms and pricing lags.
Produce
Large Roma tomatoes increased 20.6% in the reporting week, while iceberg lettuce continued its sharp rally. Potatoes also rose, but their expected new-crop easing differs from the immediate supply pressure affecting lettuce and tomatoes.
Outlook: Watch produce price and usage changes separately, prioritizing lettuce and tomatoes while checking whether later potato relief reaches invoices.
Dairy
Cheese-block weekly averages reached a one-year high even as September milk production increased 2.6%. Whey faces a different demand profile, with August exports up 30.6% year over year and prices remaining elevated.
Outlook: Separate cheese and whey exposure in cost reviews, because expanding milk supply may ease cheese without delivering comparable whey relief.
Grains
Wheat led another week of grain losses, while soybean oil stayed relatively steady. Possible Black Sea shipping progress and reports of increased U.S. winter wheat acreage are pressuring expectations for wheat prices.
Outlook: Track wheat and oil inputs independently, and verify when commodity moves translate into contracted or delivered product costs.
Frozen tilapia fillet import prices dropped 5% month over month after two consecutive gains. Import volumes remained below typical seasonal levels, suggesting soft domestic demand—not abundant imports—is the key pressure on prices.
Outlook: Benchmark tilapia purchasing trends against the softer import market, while watching for a seasonal recovery toward year-end and the first quarter.
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