Commodity forecasting highlights from CommodityONE
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Poultry
Production remains robust, trending 2.9% ahead of last year. While this is keeping breast meat, tenders, and thighs competitively priced, the market is diverging: wings are currently on a tear, up 26% over the last month to a 19-week high. Keep a close watch on supply—spring margin compression has caused broiler producers to pull back on chick placements, signaling a potential tightening of supplies this fall.
Outlook: Plan for continued value on core white and dark meat in the near term, but budget for ongoing wing volatility and a gradual tightening of overall bird availability as we move toward autumn.
Beef
The beef market presents a distinct dual narrative. While overall production is down 5.9% YTD, recent demand cooling has pushed premium primals (ribs, loins, briskets) to a 12-week low. Conversely, domestic 90% lean trim has hit record highs; smart operators are mitigating this by shifting toward imported 90s, which currently offer a significant price discount.
Outlook: Leverage the current dip in premium primals for seasonal menu features, while utilizing imported trim as a primary lever to manage your ground beef costs.
Pork
Pork output has rebounded strongly, with production running 3.5% above year-ago levels. While the overall pork cutout rallied 2% last week, this was driven almost entirely by bellies and hams; ribs, loins, and picnics actually saw price relief. Longer-term stability will depend on continued improvements in pigs-per-litter yields.
Outlook: Pork remains a superior center-of-the-plate value play, though you should prepare for continued price volatility in the bacon and ham categories.
Produce
We are seeing a welcome cooling of the produce sector. Iceberg lettuce (24-count) has seen a dramatic 62% collapse in pricing over the last two weeks, settling back into the $20 range. Avocados have also hit a seven-week low. Both markets appear to be nearing a floor and may level out shortly as sidelined demand re-enters.
Outlook: This is your window to capitalize on fresh menu features and salad-forward promotions before prices stabilize or face potential late-summer weather disruptions in August.
Dairy
A seasonal tug-of-war is underway. Summer heat is naturally curbing milk production, providing near-term support for cheese prices. However, the U.S. milk cow herd is at its largest size in over three decades, providing a strong ceiling against any runaway price hikes.
Outlook: Expect modest, heat-driven firming in cheese and butter prices, but anticipate a stable cost environment overall given the record-large dairy herd.
Grains
The grain complex experienced a week of weather-driven volatility, with early fears of Corn Belt heat causing a spike in prices. As forecasts shifted to cooler temperatures by mid-week, those gains were largely erased. Without a significant supply shock, the market appears comfortable in its current range.
Outlook: Barring a late-summer drought, corn prices should continue to gravitate toward a realistic landing spot of approximately $4.40.
Seafood
Fresh Atlantic salmon remains the category’s anchor for consistency. Following a major market correction last year, 2026 has seen remarkably flat price action. With prices 17% below year-ago levels, the category is offering excellent, predictable value.
Outlook: Expect steady, flat pricing for salmon through the end of the year—an ideal scenario for feature planning where quality and cost stability are paramount.
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