Commodity forecasting highlights from CommodityONE
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Poultry
Chicken slaughter was nearly flat week-over-week and year-over-year, while overall production for the week ending July 25 rose a solid 3.1% versus 2025. Markets were mostly soft, led lower by a sharp drop in leg quarters, though table eggs reached their highest level since March. Pilgrim’s Pride reported its weakest operating margin since early 2023, reinforcing margin pressure across the sector, while chick placement data points to a narrowing gap between production growth and last year’s levels.
Outlook: Downside risk in chicken markets appears modest as producers begin to moderate output growth.
Beef
Beef production fell 3% week-over-week and 2.5% year-over-year, with year-to-date output now tracking 5.7% below 2025 levels amid an 8.2% drop in cattle slaughter. Boxed beef cutouts declined despite tighter supplies, with choice reaching its lowest level in nearly eight months. The USDA’s semi-annual cattle report showed a mixed herd picture: total inventory edged higher due to dairy cows and longer feedlot stays, but beef cow numbers and the calf crop both declined.
Outlook: Tight beef supplies are expected to persist for the foreseeable future despite early signs the herd may be nearing an inflection point.
Pork
Pork production rose modestly week-over-week and was essentially flat year-over-year, with year-to-date output up 0.6% entirely due to heavier hog weights. Markets were mixed as the USDA cutout fell 1.7%, driven by a sharp drop in hams, while bellies climbed to their highest weekly average in four months. Belly inventories rose 18.4% year-over-year but remain near seasonal norms, with the May-to-June supply decline ranking among the smallest in 15 years.
Outlook: Limited further upside is likely in belly prices given the large year-to-date inventory build and typical August seasonal peak.
Produce
Avocados were the standout, with 48-count Hass prices jumping another 12.6% week-over-week for a third consecutive gain amid normal seasonal strength. Iceberg lettuce extended its losing streak to five weeks with an 8.3% decline, though the pace of losses is slowing. No major supply disruptions are evident in avocados, while lettuce appears to be stabilizing above the $10 level.
Outlook: Avocados may see additional upside toward $60 per carton before the typical September downtrend, while lettuce should stabilize before any usual fall rally.
Dairy
CME spot dairy trade was active with most categories finishing lower, led by butter and cheese blocks (the latter reaching its lowest weekly average since mid-January). Nonfat dry milk was the lone gainer. Butter is now 42% below year-ago levels, though limited cream availability for churning suggests further near-term downside may be minimal. The June U.S. milk cow herd was the largest for any comparable date in over three decades, supported by a larger replacement heifer pool.
Outlook: Butter prices face limited further downside near term due to tight cream supplies, while cheese remains supported by strong export demand.
Grains
Grains broadly retreated last week, giving back a portion of the gains made earlier in July. Wheat was the relative standout, holding up better than corn and soybeans despite ongoing Black Sea shipping disruptions. The market appears to be underpricing the risk that attacks on commercial vessels could extend into the peak August export window for Russia and Ukraine.
Outlook: Wheat prices could move significantly higher if Black Sea disruptions persist without clear resolution.
Seafood
May import data for core seafood items was relatively stable compared with earlier volatility in 2026, but frozen tilapia filets saw a sharp 17.5% month-over-month price drop, the seventh consecutive large swing. The decline followed a 15% jump in April and aligns with the typical seasonal high occurring between March and April.
Outlook: Tilapia may experience slight counter-seasonal strength over the second half of 2026 after the outsized May decline.
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