Commodity forecasting highlights from CommodityONE
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Poultry
Young chicken slaughter slipped 0.5% last week but remains roughly 1% above year‑ago levels; year‑to‑date production is about 2.7% higher thanks to heavier birds, and broiler egg sets and chick placements are roughly 2% above last year — supporting ample summer availability. Breast and tender markets softened (breast at a 20‑week low), leg quarters held firm, thighs eased slightly, and U.S. exports are down versus 2025, pushing dark‑meat exports to record lows while domestic dark‑meat consumption is at a record high.
Outlook: Expect continued ample chicken supplies into summer with downward pressure on breasts and increasing risk of thigh weakness as domestic consumption and weak exports absorb dark meat.
Beef
Beef production fell last week (‑2.1% w/w, ‑2.8% y/y) and year‑to‑date production is about 6.3% below 2025; cash cattle traded steady to soft and USDA Choice/Select cutouts moved lower for the week (Select down the most). New World Screwworm cases and very weak pasture ratings (lowest for the week in 36 years) heighten concern over herd rebuilding prospects.
Outlook: Expect tight near‑term supplies and supported cutouts while herd recovery remains uncertain until disease and pasture/drought conditions improve.
Pork
Pork output eased 0.9% w/w but is about 3.2% above year‑ago levels; year‑to‑date output is roughly flat (+0.4%) vs. 2025 as lighter slaughter was offset by heavier carcass weights. Cash hogs were steady–firm, but the USDA pork cutout fell ~3.2% on the week (driven by a ~12% drop in butts); most primals now trail year‑ago levels except ribs, and bellies remain sharply lower year‑over‑year.
Outlook: Pork supplies should remain generally ample and pressure the overall cutout, though periodic strength in specific primals (butts, bellies, ribs) could create short, volatile moves.
Produce
Pork output eased 0.9% w/w but is about 3.2% above year‑ago levels; year‑to‑date output is roughly flat (+0.4%) vs. 2025 as lighter slaughter was offset by heavier carcass weights. Cash hogs were steady–firm, but the USDA pork cutout fell ~3.2% on the week (driven by a ~12% drop in butts); most primals now trail year‑ago levels except ribs, and bellies remain sharply lower year‑over‑year.
Outlook: Pork supplies should remain generally ample and pressure the overall cutout, though periodic strength in specific primals (butts, bellies, ribs) could create short, volatile moves.
Dairy
Trading was active (67 loads Friday); cheese blocks/barrels posted small gains while most other dairy items trended lower. Nonfat dry milk sits near three‑month lows as buyers delay purchases for cheaper prices, while butter has shown unexpected firmness despite softer international markets — U.S. butter exports surged in April but imports also rose sharply, narrowing the U.S.–international price spread.
Outlook: Nonfat dry milk likely sees further near‑term downside as buyers hold off, while butter’s seasonal upside may moderate as narrowing spreads and rising imports increase available U.S. supplies.
Grains
Trading was active (67 loads Friday); cheese blocks/barrels posted small gains while most other dairy items trended lower. Nonfat dry milk sits near three‑month lows as buyers delay purchases for cheaper prices, while butter has shown unexpected firmness despite softer international markets — U.S. butter exports surged in April but imports also rose sharply, narrowing the U.S.–international price spread.
Outlook: Nonfat dry milk likely sees further near‑term downside as buyers hold off, while butter’s seasonal upside may moderate as narrowing spreads and rising imports increase available U.S. supplies.
Seafood
April import data show frozen cod fillet prices jumped 14.4% last month and are up about 42% over the past two months and ~31% versus a year ago, driven by import volumes at their lowest level for April since 2013; these moves produced consecutive all‑time highs for the series. Early indications suggest imports likely rebounded in May, which should help relieve price pressure later in the year.
Outlook: Near‑term cod prices may stay elevated given April’s steep import drop, but renewed import flows (May onward) should exert downward pressure through the back half of the year.
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