Commodity forecasting highlights from CommodityONE
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Poultry
Young broiler slaughter increased nearly 1% week over week and more than 1.5% year over year, while year-to-date production is running 2.5% above 2025. Chicken markets continued to soften, with tenders now priced nearly $0.50/lb below boneless skinless thighs, creating favorable buying opportunities across many poultry categories.
Outlook: With broiler egg sets up 1.8% and chick placements up 2.4% versus last year, poultry supplies should remain strong and support favorable pricing through the summer.
Beef
Beef production increased just 0.2% last week but remains 3% below last year, while USDA lowered its 2026 beef production forecast by 2.2%. Although feedlot inventories improved, May cattle placements fell nearly 10% year over year, pointing to continued supply constraints despite expectations for stronger Q3 production.
Outlook: Continue monitoring beef markets closely, as near-term supplies remain tight even with seasonal production gains expected later this summer.
Pork
Pork production is running 3.7% above last year, helping keep most prices in check despite recent strength in bellies, which are up 10% over the past month but still 34% below 2025. Year-to-date production is now 0.5% above last year, supported by heavier hog weights.
Outlook: Expect modest seasonal price increases, but strong production should continue to provide a relatively stable pork market.
Produce
Lettuce remains the biggest inflationary category, with 24-count iceberg prices climbing another 7.4% week over week to a new year-to-date high as supply issues persist in both eastern and western growing regions. Meanwhile, roma tomatoes posted their first weekly increase since April but remain well below spring highs.
Outlook: Lettuce prices may remain elevated until supplies improve, while tomato pricing should follow a more typical seasonal climb through mid-July.
Dairy
Dairy markets softened again last week, with nonfat dry milk falling nearly $0.20/lb to a 16-week low and butter trading 38% below year-ago levels. Cheese prices also remain roughly $0.30/lb below their five-year average, reflecting ample milk supplies.
Outlook: Seasonal heat may tighten milk production modestly, but large dairy supplies should help keep overall pricing relatively stable this summer.
Grains
Grain markets were mixed, with corn, soybeans, and wheat stabilizing after recent declines, while soybean oil has fallen nearly 12% since June 3. Market direction continues to be influenced by energy prices and technical trading signals.
Outlook: Grain markets are expected to remain volatile, making ongoing market monitoring important for purchasing and forecasting decisions.
Seafood
Fresh yellowfin tuna posted the largest move among tracked seafood commodities, falling 17.8% month over month after reaching a one-year high earlier this spring. The decline reflects typical seasonal pricing patterns following temporary supply support.
Outlook: Yellowfin tuna prices are expected to rebound later this summer and could reach a new year-to-date high by August before easing again.
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