Commodity forecasting highlights from CommodityONE
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Poultry
Chicken production remains elevated, with year-to-date output up roughly 2.7%, helping keep overall markets relatively manageable. Even so, underlying availability is less loose than the topline numbers suggest: breast and thigh inventories are still running tighter than a year ago, while tenderloin pricing fell about 7% week over week and wing prices remain near 10-year lows for June.
Outlook: Poultry remains one of the more stable near-term proteins, but tightening inventories on key cuts could create selective price firming if production slows.
Beef
Beef fundamentals remain structurally tight despite some short-term production stability. Total production is still tracking roughly 1.3% to 2.8% below year-ago levels, and the latest cattle placement data showed a nearly 10% decline, reinforcing concerns about tighter supplies ahead. At the same time, certain middle meats and loins continue to offer better relative value than other beef categories.
Outlook: Expect elevated beef pricing to persist, with supply-side pressure likely to keep cost management and cut optimization front and center.
Pork
Pork continues to provide one of the best value opportunities in the protein complex. The pork cutout remains about 21% below last year’s level, and bellies have been under especially heavy pressure, trading as much as 32% lower year over year. However, the longer-term production picture is worth watching, with the U.S. breeding herd sitting at a 12-year low.
Outlook: Pork remains attractive for near-term menu and procurement strategies, though the supply outlook suggests this value window may narrow over time.
Produce
Produce markets are generally stable, but lettuce remains a notable exception. Iceberg has now posted gains for four consecutive weeks, including a recent increase of about 4.1% week over week, as supply conditions continue to limit the usual seasonal reset. Most other produce categories remain comparatively quiet.
Outlook: Operators with heavy lettuce exposure should expect continued near-term cost pressure and evaluate flexibility across specs, blends, and menu applications.
Dairy
Dairy markets weakened last week, creating a more favorable near-term buying environment. Cheese blocks and butter both touched 6-month lows, offering some relief for operators with broad dairy exposure. Still, butter
inventories remain roughly 7% to 8% below year-ago levels, which could limit how much further the market softens.Outlook: Dairy is presenting a tactical buying opportunity, but butter remains the category to watch most closely for renewed volatility.
Grains
Grain markets have been relatively quiet, though that calm may not last long. Trade attention is centered on the USDA’s June Acreage and Quarterly Grain Stocks reports, with corn acreage estimates near 95 million acres and soybean acreage near 83.7 million acres. Any surprise in planted area or stocks could quickly reset pricing expectations.
Outlook: Grain-related cost inputs may turn more volatile in the near term, making report-driven market reactions especially important for forward purchasing decisions.
Seafood
Seafood pricing remains uneven by species. Frozen tilapia continues to show notable month-to-month swings, with recent volatility ranging from 7% to more than 14%, though pricing is still relatively favorable versus historical levels. In contrast, frozen cod import prices are running at historic highs, about 31% above last year.
Outlook: Species mix remains critical — tilapia offers relative value, while cod continues to present a meaningful cost headwind.
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