Commodity forecasting highlights from CommodityONE
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Poultry
Chicken slaughter saw a significant surge, up 10% week-over-week (and 2.6% year-over-year), with production for the week ending May 30th approximately 2.7% above 2025 levels. Broiler flock efficiency remains strong. Pricing trends were mixed: front-half items such as wings, tenders, and breasts softened, while boneless skinless thighs and leg quarters held firm. Table egg prices are easing towards $0.50/dozen. Turkey production is recovering from avian flu impacts, with April output up 9.6% year-over-year, and supplies are expected to build steadily, although monthly volumes remain historically small.
Outlook: Expect ample chicken supplies to keep pressure on breast and wing prices in the near term, while gradually rebuilding turkey supplies should soften turkey pricing into the summer.
Beef
Beef production jumped 19% compared to the prior holiday-shortened week but remains 4.3% below year-ago levels. Cattle markets experienced volatility following the detection of New World Screwworm in a Texas calf, the first U.S. case since 1966, raising concerns about herd-rebuilding costs and biosecurity. Cutout action was mixed, with choice and trim prices mostly firm while select beef softened. Hamburger inflation is running significantly higher at approximately 16.4% year-over-year, in contrast to steak prices which are only about 2% higher.
Outlook: Ongoing risks to herd recovery and elevated hamburger inflation driven by trim should sustain the divergence between ground beef and higher-end steak prices.
Pork
Pork output rose sharply, with production increasing 13.6% week-over-week and 4.9% year-over-year, driven by higher slaughter numbers and heavier carcass weights. Despite this, hog futures weakened to near early-March lows. The USDA pork cutout has gained over 3% in the past month, led by the belly complex, though it remains well below year-ago levels. Retail pork prices hit a record high in April but are at a record discount to beef. Per capita pork consumption growth is projected to be subdued at around 0.6% this year.
Outlook: Higher supplies and softening hog futures suggest limited upside potential for pork prices this summer, with seasonal demand gains likely to be muted.
Produce
Avocados have been the standout, with 48-count Hass prices surging approximately 80% in two weeks to their highest level since May 2025, primarily due to Mexico’s main crop ending early. California and Colombia supplies are insufficient to fully compensate for this gap, though an earlier Loca harvest is expected to provide some relief later in the month. Iceberg lettuce has eased from its April highs and is anticipated to trade around $20/carton for most of the summer.
Outlook: Expect continued tight avocado markets and strong prices for another few weeks before incremental supply relief arrives late in the month; other produce items should remain range-bound through summer.
Dairy
CME spot dairy activity was light last week, with Nonfat Dry Milk (NDM) and cheese blocks closing lower (NDM notably so), while butter prices closed higher. Milk production is seasonally easing in the Midwest and West, with the Northeast ramping up. NDM prices hit historic highs earlier this spring, but year-to-date 2026 NDM output is tracking nearly 7% above last year, and stocks are rebuilding, suggesting price pressure has likely peaked.
Outlook: NDM prices have likely peaked and appear vulnerable to modest downside, while butter and cheese prices will follow mixed regional demand and supply cues.
Grains
The sell-off across the grains complex has continued, with soybeans joining the declines and even impacting soybean oil’s recent rally. Corn weakness appears linked to shifting Corn Belt weather forecasts, particularly in the eastern Corn Belt, and strong negative momentum. Technical risks suggest potential for further downside in corn prices.
Outlook: Weather and technical selling will likely keep corn and soybeans under pressure in the near term, with any meaningful bounce dependent on tightening weather-related fundamentals.
Seafood
Frozen snow crab prices rose 7.6% month-over-month in March, which may have been the last quiet period before the 2026 import on-season began in April. The import season is expected to be strong and could help temper typical summer price gains. Snow crab prices have remained volatile post-COVID, and recent months have interrupted the multi-year recovery trend.
Outlook: A robust 2026 import season should blunt peak-season snow crab price spikes, but volatility may remain possible depending on supply flow and demand.
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