Commodity forecasting highlights from CommodityONE
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Poultry
Chicken availability remains generally favorable, with slaughter running about 2% ahead of last year and year-to-date production up 2.4% despite a 1.2% year-over-year decline in output for the week ending August 8 due to lighter bird weights. Forward supply signals remain stable as both broiler egg sets and chick placements are about 1% above year-ago levels, although growth has moderated. On the market side, pricing softened across most of the complex last week, with breast meat, tenders, and wings all lower, while whole birds and leg quarters were more resilient. The most notable structural trend continues to be dark meat strength: in July, boneless skinless thighs hit a record premium over boneless skinless breasts, supported by both exports and stronger domestic dark meat consumption growth.
Outlook: Expect dark meat to stay structurally firm near term, while white meat markets remain softer unless domestic consumption trends begin to rebalance later this year.
Beef
Beef fundamentals remain tight, but demand resistance is becoming more visible. Weekly production rose 1.3%, though it still came in 1.4% below last year, and year-to-date output remains down 5.5% on an 8% decline in cattle slaughter. Wholesale pricing moved higher last week, with the USDA Choice cutout up 1.8% and Select up 0.6%, led by gains in briskets, loins, and choice ribs; however, cutouts are still running about 5% below 2025 levels. On the demand side, the USDA reduced its 2026 per capita beef consumption estimate to 58.9 pounds, down 0.5% year over year, signaling continued resistance to historically high retail prices. June trade data reinforced the supply story: beef exports fell 10%, while imports surged 24%, setting a monthly record, with Mexico standing out as a major source of imported beef and lean trim values continuing to trade below comparable domestic product.
Outlook: Beef should remain supported by tight domestic cattle supplies, but rising imports and softening consumer tolerance for elevated retail pricing are likely to limit upside.
Pork
Pork continues to offer a more favorable cost position than beef, but that relative value still has not translated into a broad-based market rally. Weekly production rose 2.2% from the prior week but remained 1.5% below last year, while year-to-date output is up just 0.4% thanks to 1.1% heavier carcass weights. Summer production is still expected to track about 2% below 2025, yet the USDA pork cutout moved lower last week, pressured by weakness in ribs and hams. Bellies were one of the few firmer spots, nearing their highest levels in a year. Demand remains the limiting factor: USDA lowered its 2026 domestic pork per capita consumption estimate, and 2026 consumption is expected to land near its lowest level in a decade. Export performance has also been mixed, with June exports down 4% year over year, though ham exports to Mexico are up 1% year to date to a record high, helped by domestic ham prices running roughly 6% below last year.
Outlook: Seasonal weakness, soft domestic demand, and pressure in the ham and rib complexes suggest pork will continue to provide selective value opportunities into the fall.
Produce
Produce remains one of the steadier areas of the market, with little movement last week across key staple items. Lettuce and tomatoes were flat week over week, while potatoes continued their expected climb and appear positioned to reach 2025 highs as soon as this week. The biggest issue to monitor is avocados: the USDA’s suspension of avocado inspections in Michoacán, Mexico, the largest supplier of avocados to the U.S., has not yet moved domestic pricing, with 48-count Hass avocados essentially flat week over week, but that could change quickly if the disruption extends. Outside of avocados, the broader produce complex remains relatively calm heading into the end of the month.
Outlook: Near-term produce costs should stay mostly stable, but avocados remain a clear upside risk if the Michoacán inspection suspension is not resolved quickly.
Dairy
Dairy markets remain mixed, with export-driven support in cheese contrasting with softer butter dynamics. Weekly averages moved higher for cheese blocks, cheese barrels, and nonfat dry milk, while butter and dry whey weakened, pressured by available cream and at least adequate butter inventories. U.S. milk production remains seasonally light, but not tight enough to create immediate upside across the complex. Cheese continues to be the standout: U.S. cheese exports jumped 24% year over year in June to a fresh record, aided by attractive global pricing after the June CME block average came in as the second-lowest for that month in more than a decade. Even so, the domestic rally potential appears limited unless international cheese markets strengthen meaningfully from here.
Outlook: Cheese should remain fundamentally supported by export demand, but a sustained domestic dairy price rally still looks unlikely without stronger global market recovery.
Grains
Grain markets were relatively quiet overall, though wheat continues to carry meaningful underlying risk even as corn captured most of the attention after the August WASDE and Crop Production reports. Wheat briefly softened on headlines suggesting a potential halt to attacks on commercial shipping in the Black Sea and Sea of Azov, but that proposal was quickly rejected by Russia. As a result, export disruption risk remains firmly in place during a critical seasonal shipping window. More importantly for long-range buyers, there are now reports that ongoing disruption is affecting farmer income and could interfere with preparation for the 2026/27 planting season, extending the risk from a short-term logistics issue into a broader production concern.
Outlook: Wheat markets retain notable upside risk as Black Sea shipping disruptions and potential 2026/27 production impacts remain unresolved.
Seafood
Seafood pricing was more stable in the latest import data, with none of the six major tracked categories moving more than 7% month over month, except cod. Frozen cod fillet prices rose another 5% in June, extending a four-month rally that has now pushed average pricing up nearly 52% and produced new all-time highs in every month of that run, based on data going back to 2013. Import volumes improved for the second straight month, which is an encouraging sign, though supplies still remain below typical seasonal levels. That suggests the market may be nearing a top, but not yet fully there.
Outlook: Cod prices may stay elevated in the near term, but improving import volumes should begin capping the rally and could set up some relief later this year.
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