August 12, 2025 Market Report

Alerts & What’s Trending

Want Key Insights for Success? Here Are 10 You Can’t Miss!

Want Better Efficiency and Cost Savings? Smart Tech Has the Answer!

Rising Food Costs Cutting into Profits? Here’s How to Fight Back!

 

Produce

Iceberg lettuce prices surged back to $25.49/carton, reversing recent declines, as light weights and disease concerns impacted supply. The increase follows July’s YTD high, with risks suggesting a potential climb toward $35/carton by late fall. Conversely, 48-count Hass avocados fell to their lowest price since Jan 2024 despite seasonal crop transitions and tariff considerations.

Outlook: Lettuce markets are entering a high-risk phase that could elevate costs through Q4 if supply pressures persist. Avocado pricing is expected to stay soft through year-end, providing potential menu cost offsets in operations utilizing fresh product.

Grain

Grain markets posted modest w/w gains, breaking the recent trend of sustained weakness. Corn yield estimates increased to 184 bu/acre from 181, with final yield projections potentially near 188. Strong demand kept prices supported despite the supply outlook. Soymeal saw moderate gains, while wheat firmed slightly.

Outlook: Higher yield expectations will likely cap rallies, but strong global demand could keep corn supported above $4/bushel. Forward contracting opportunities may present value for Q4 procurement strategies.

Dairy

CME cheese blocks increased $0.15 to $1.83/lb, while barrels were up $0.12 to $1.80/lb. Butter declined $0.07 to $2.40/lb as retail demand softened, though spot cream prices strengthened due to tighter availability. Milk production remains seasonally low but adequate. Cheese production is steady nationwide, with stable foodservice demand and mixed retail pull.

Outlook: Cheese pricing should hold firm into early fall, supported by consistent demand from the foodservice sector. Market participants should watch cream pricing trends for potential cost impacts on butter and downstream dairy applications.

Beef

CME AUG cattle futures rose over 4% to $238.75/cwt. The Choice cutout advanced 5% to $378.94/cwt, with rib and tenderloin primals posting strong gains. Shortloins gained $0.47 to $8.00/lb, while strips fell $0.18 to $8.21/lb. Chuck and round complexes were stronger across the board, with chuck rolls up $0.35 to $4.89/lb and inside rounds higher by $0.28 to $4.52/lb. 50% trim jumped $0.25 to $2.02/lb.

Outlook: Demand ahead of Labor Day is lifting wholesale beef values, with counter-seasonal strength emerging in end-of-year holiday cuts. Expect continued firmness in ribs and tenderloins through September before seasonal adjustments take hold.

Pork

Pork cutout increased 2% to $116.33/cwt, with notable gains in rib, loin, and belly primals. Bellies rose 6% w/w, with derind 13/17 bellies up $0.16 to $2.26/lb. Loins added $0.07 to $1.35/lb, while butts and hams moved lower. Tenderloins fell $0.10 to $1.88/lb. Lean hog futures and cash prices showed mixed movement.

Outlook: Near-term price action is likely to be mixed as summer demand subsides. Market participants should monitor belly values closely, as volatility in this primal can significantly influence overall cutout direction in Q4.

Seafood

Frozen cod filet prices declined 12.6% m/m, hitting the $3.80/lb target ahead of schedule after back-to-back monthly drops. Import volumes have been subdued, which could stabilize pricing in the near term. The market remains historically volatile following significant swings earlier in 2025.

Outlook: Cod prices are expected to trade sideways into year-end. Risk management strategies such as diversifying whitefish sourcing or forward booking remain prudent given the volatility backdrop.

Poultry

USDA young chicken harvest totaled 170.1M head last week, down 1% w/w but up 1.8% y/y. Whole bird values eased to $1.24/lb, while white meat markets were mixed—boneless/skinless breasts rose $0.05 to $1.95/lb, tenderloins were flat, and wings added $0.01 to $1.72/lb. Thigh meat was slightly weaker, with boneless/skinless down $0.01 to $1.98/lb. Turkey pricing firmed, with boneless breasts up 12% w/w. Egg prices declined nearly 3% w/w.

Outlook: Seasonal price declines are moderating, but potential tariff impacts could slow export movement in August. White meat demand remains steady due to its relative affordability versus other proteins, suggesting stable domestic consumption. Price trends are expected to remain flat-to-lower until fall retail activity accelerates.