Commodity forecasting highlights from CommodityONE
This snapshot report is released every week. To learn more about the FULL report, click here.
Designed to support purchasing and forecasting teams in managing price risks, CommodityONE provides powerful tools like commodity forecasting and item-specific food cost modeling to help you plan smarter and maximize profitability. Learn how you can receive even more in-depth insights delivered daily from CommodityONE to elevate your strategy.
Expert insights
curated weekly
Powered by
CommodityONE
Alerts & What’s Trending
Are You Getting Full Value From Your Supply Chain Data?
Is AI the Key to Smarter Food Procurement?
Are Your Food Procurement Strategies Built for Today’s Market?
Poultry
Chicken production continues to run ahead of last year, with year-to-date output up 2.6% and weekly harvest still trending higher. Even with ample supply, the market is sending mixed signals: breast meat has slipped to a seven-month low, tenders are down 6%, and wings climbed 8% to a 13-week high. Record-high bird weights are helping keep overall pricing in check for now.
Outlook: Poultry remains relatively manageable, but volatility between cuts means operators may see very different pricing depending on what they buy most.
Beef
Beef fundamentals remain tight, with fed cattle slaughter down 8.3% from the same week last year. Boxed beef values softened modestly last week, but the broader supply picture is still supportive of elevated pricing, especially as lower placements point to continued tightness ahead. Some middle meats have shown more flexibility, which may offer opportunity.
Outlook: Beef costs are likely to remain firm overall, making cut selection and timing especially important in the weeks ahead.
Pork
Pork continues to stand out as one of the better protein values in the market. While the cutout moved slightly higher last week, bellies remain down 33% year over year, and second-quarter gains were well below normal seasonal patterns. That softer demand profile is keeping a lid on pricing for now, even with herd numbers expected to tighten longer term.
Outlook: Pork still offers attractive menu value today, though seasonal firming later this summer could start to shift the picture.
Produce
Produce markets provided some welcome relief last week after several weeks of upward pressure. Iceberg lettuce dropped 28% week over week, avocados fell nearly 20%, and large roma tomatoes declined 16.8% to a new year-to-date low. While that pullback is encouraging, produce remains one of the more reactive categories during seasonal transitions.
Outlook: Short-term pricing has improved, but volatility can return quickly, so this remains a category worth watching closely.
Dairy
Cheese markets remained soft in June, with CME block averages finishing 18% below last year and marking one of the weakest June averages in the past decade. Butter and milk remain generally available, but seasonal heat is beginning to pressure production in some regions. That could start putting a floor under current market levels.
Outlook: Dairy is still offering some cost relief, but further downside may be limited if production tightens through the summer.
Grains
Grain markets turned their attention to USDA acreage and stocks data, with corn inventories coming in lower than expected at 5.295 billion bushels. That figure reinforced the view that demand remains solid and balance sheets are still relatively tight, even with decent crop expectations in place. As weather risk builds deeper into summer, volatility could pick up quickly.
Outlook: Grain markets may stay sensitive in the weeks ahead, especially if weather or updated crop estimates shift supply expectations.
Seafood
Frozen Alaskan pollock continues to move higher, with pricing now up 26% since February and sitting at a 17-month high. Reduced import volumes have been a major factor in the recent run-up, though supply trends may begin to improve later this year. Even so, seasonal patterns suggest the market could stay supported in the near term.
Outlook: Seafood buyers may not see immediate relief on pollock, making this one market to monitor carefully as imports recover.
Want the FULL report in your inbox everyday?
Submit the short form to learn how to get the FULL CommodityONE report delivered DAILY to your inbox:
CommodityONE offers a diversity in format and provides definitive content that presents the trends and forecasts that align with what’s happening in the industry. Sign up for CommodityONE today to unlock the most in-depth foodservice commodities report on the market.
Expert insights
curated weekly
Powered by
CommodityONE
