Commodity forecasting highlights from CommodityONE
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Poultry
Chicken production is up 2.9% year-to-date, with softness in boneless skinless breast and wing prices due to ample supply. Dark meat cuts like thighs and tenders are firmer. Turkey breast prices have modestly strengthened but remain below month-ago levels. Table egg prices are very inexpensive. Wing inventories are historically tight but have shown a smaller-than-average drawdown.
Outlook: Modest upside risk for wings and select dark-meat items is possible this summer, but ample overall production should limit the chance of a major, broad rally.
Beef
Beef production declined sharply due to the Memorial Day holiday but remains only modestly below last year. Feedlot inventories are up nearly 2% year-over-year, suggesting larger beef supplies could emerge. The boxed beef complex was mixed, with Choice loin and rib primals now trading below year-ago prices.
Outlook: Expect beef supplies to build in the coming months, putting downward pressure on many primal cuts, though specific items like brisket and certain trims may remain supported.
Pork
Pork production is essentially flat compared to last year, driven by heavier hog weights. The pork cutout has risen across all primals, with pork butts showing significant strength (up ~16% in the past month). April cold storage data reveals tighter-than-normal inventories, with butts at their smallest April level since 2021 and bellies at a five-year low.
Outlook: Tight supplies of pork bellies and butts, combined with improving seasonal demand, are expected to support upward price pressure on these items through the summer, making current belly prices attractive for forward coverage.
Produce
Prices for tomatoes, lettuce, and onions continue to ease from earlier seasonal highs, though the downward trend for tomatoes is slowing. Potatoes and 48-count Hass avocados have posted notable price increases. The potato rally appears to have begun slightly earlier than usual as old-crop supplies tighten. Avocado prices rose due to an earlier-than-expected wind-down of Mexico’s main crop.
Outlook: Expect continued seasonal upside for potatoes and avocados through late summer as supplies remain constrained and demand increases. Tomatoes and lettuce are anticipated to complete their return to more normalized pricing levels.
Dairy
CME dairy markets were mixed, with cheese and nonfat dry milk declining while butter and dry whey advanced. April U.S. milk production rose 2.7% year-over-year, supported by herd expansion and higher yields. The two-year growth rate in milk output has reached its highest level in at least four years, indicating structurally ample milk supplies.
Outlook: Structurally ample and expanding milk production is expected to limit sustained upside potential in cheese and butter prices through the summer and into the second half of the year, keeping the dairy complex generally well-supplied.
Grains
Most grain markets finished lower, with the exception of soybean oil, which has extended a winning streak and cleared a key technical level around $75/cwt. This move occurred despite soft crude oil prices and indifferent soybean performance. Further significant gains for soybean oil face considerable resistance at the 2022 four-year high and would likely require supportive crude oil movement.
Outlook: Soybean oil may see additional near-term strength, but a sustained rally beyond current levels will likely depend on supportive crude oil dynamics. Broader grain markets are expected to remain range-bound to soft.
Seafood
Frozen Alaskan pollock fillet prices surged over 15% month-over-month in March, reaching their highest level since early 2025. This recovery follows a multi-year price slide, aided by import and market dynamics. Prices corrected in April, but the overall market trend indicates potential for further gains through the fall.
Outlook: Pollock prices are likely to trend higher through the rest of 2026; consider coverage if pollock is a significant program item.
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