March 17, 2026 Market Report

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Produce

Roma tomatoes remain elevated (above ~$40/carton) because of supply issues from Mexico and the Eastern U.S. Iceberg lettuce has retraced much of its spike and is trading near mid‑January levels. Limes climbed ~19% week-over-week and have more than doubled since the turn of the year — a common early‑March pattern.

Outlook: Tomato prices should remain volatile near term; implement flexible sourcing and menu substitutions for tomato-forward items. Iceberg provides short-term stability. Expect lime prices to peak in the coming weeks and decline through summer; stagger purchases or use citrus alternatives in beverage programs.

Grain

Wheat and corn maintained recent uptrends despite early-week volatility; Chicago wheat is supported around/above ~$5.60. Corn is holding gains amid geopolitical risk. Soybeans have outperformed corn, prompting market bets that soybeans may capture additional acreage in the upcoming planting cycle ahead of the March Prospective Plantings Report.

Outlook: Expect firmness into the planting reports. Operators with heavy grain exposure (bakery, breaded items, or indirect feed-related costs) should evaluate forward coverage for wheat and corn and monitor planting intentions for potential price inflection points. If soybean acreage expands, that could moderate soybean upside later in the season.

Dairy

CME dairy trading volumes were light. Butter demand, especially for higher‑fat export product, remains strong and bulk availability is tight. Cheese traded modestly softer in thin markets while whey and NFDM ticked higher.

Outlook: Butter downside is limited near term due to export demand and tight bulk stocks — consider forward coverage or inventory buffers for butter-intensive concepts. Cheese softness presents a buying window for pizza, sandwich, and snack operations.

Beef

Beef production remains constrained — weekly output down 7.9% YoY, YTD down ~7.6% — driven by ~10% lower cattle slaughter partially offset by ~3% heavier dressed weights. Choice boxed beef values hit six‑month highs, led by flank (+16% last 4 weeks), loins, and ribs; retail beef prices jumped ~14% YoY in February but demand stays resilient.

Outlook: Tight supplies will likely keep beef costs elevated. Emphasize trim optimization, portion control, and forward coverage for key primals; premium concepts can lean into scarcity to support pricing while value concepts shift to secondary cuts.

Pork

Pork production rose ~1.9% week-over-week and ~2.1% YoY; YTD output is down less than 1% with slightly lower slaughter and heavier carcass weights. Bellies (bacon) surged ~16% over the past month; pork cutout is at its highest since late October, yet retail pork prices hit record highs.

Outlook: Belly-led strength may persist short term, supporting bacon programs. The USDA Hog & Pigs report later this month will be decisive for fall pricing — if herd rebuilding shows through, prices could ease; if not, prepare for continued firmness. Consider tactical forward buys for bellies and flexibility in pork promotions.

Seafood

January import data showed fresh yellowfin tuna up ~26% month-over-month to roughly $4.40/lb — a typical seasonal peak following a weak 2025. Other core seafood items showed increased volatility but largely in-line with seasonal patterns.

Outlook: Yellowfin prices are likely to come under pressure through May–June after the seasonal rally; a more pronounced multi-month recovery could emerge later in summer if supply tightens. Stagger tuna purchases, consider alternative species or cuts for near-term features, and time promotions for late spring/summer opportunities.

Poultry

Domestic chicken production is robust, up ~3.7% YTD, with young chicken slaughter ~3.5% ahead of last year. USDA projects record per-capita chicken consumption and growing protein share. Boneless, skinless breast prices are flat month-to-date (breaking a nine‑year March pattern), thighs are up ~13% over the past four weeks, and wings have fallen below $1.

Outlook: Near-term pressure on breast prices likely to persist; thighs present a margin and promotional opportunity. Prioritize thigh- and bone-in features, monitor wing spreads for wing/promo opportunities, and watch USDA supply updates for any pivot signals.