May 20, 2025 Market Report

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Food Costs Are Up—But Your Costs Don’t Have to Be

Produce

Large roma tomatoes jumped 16.5% week-over-week to a seasonal high near $14/carton, driven by transitional supply factors. Avocados continued their steady downward trend, and iceberg lettuce held firm near $10.50/carton.

Outlook: Transitional volatility in tomatoes is expected to moderate in the coming weeks. Broader produce markets remain relatively stable, with limited short-term price risk.

Grain

Corn markets rebounded midweek, driven by strong export activity. Current marketing year (CMY) sales totaled 1.677 MMT, while new marketing year (NMY) sales reached 509K MT. Early-week price softness due to fast planting progress was offset by global demand signals.

Outlook: While domestic planting pace may limit upward movement, international demand is providing underlying price support. Market volatility is likely through the June acreage report.

Dairy

Cheese pricing increased, with CME blocks rising 3% to $1.90/lb and barrels up 2% to $1.82/lb. Butter moved slightly higher to $2.33/lb. Strong milk supply is enabling elevated production levels, supporting downstream availability.

Outlook: With retail demand steady and inventories seasonally aligned, dairy pricing is expected to hold within a narrow range. Operators should anticipate modest inflation in the short term.

Beef

Boxed beef values moved higher last week. Choice cutout closed at $349.90/cwt and select at $339.20/cwt. Strength was observed in premium cuts such as tenderloins and striploins, while short loins and sirloins posted modest declines. End cuts, grinds, and trim segments trended upward—81% ground beef rose 5% to $3.48/lb, and 50% trim jumped 7% to $1.19/lb.

Outlook: Harvest rates remain compressed compared to last year, contributing to persistent upward pricing pressure. Operators should anticipate continued firmness in beef markets as seasonal demand builds.

Pork

Pork pricing surged across several primals. Pork butts and ribs each advanced over 10% week-over-week, supported by strong export activity. Boneless pork butts rose to $1.59/lb, and spareribs reached $1.69/lb. Belly prices increased modestly, while trim values declined slightly.

Outlook: International demand and seasonal trends are expected to sustain elevated pork prices in the near term. Operators should evaluate portion strategies and alternative cuts to maintain margin control.

Seafood

Tilapia pricing rose 7.9% month-over-month to approximately $2/lb, in line with historical seasonal highs. Last year’s atypical pricing patterns continue to influence short-term forecasting.

Outlook: Barring another counter-seasonal shift, tilapia prices are expected to ease heading into Q3. Operators sourcing frozen fillets may find improving cost conditions in the coming months.

Poultry

Chicken markets demonstrated continued strength in key cuts. Boneless breasts inched up to $2.76/lb, now 53% higher year-over-year, while tenderloins increased $0.08 to $2.33/lb. Boneless thighs rose to $2.37/lb, maintaining upward momentum. Whole birds remained stable at $1.35/lb. Wing pricing declined further to $1.17/lb—down nearly 50% y/y. Turkey breast and whole bird pricing advanced amid reduced harvest volumes. Egg pricing remained unchanged week-over-week.

Outlook: The poultry market appears to be finding equilibrium. Supply constraints and consistent demand for white meat are creating a supportive pricing environment. Wing values, however, continue to present a cost-efficient menu opportunity.